© 1999 - 2008
Max-Planck-Gesellschaft

World Urbanization Prospects
an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with the mobility transition theory

 

Philippe Bocquier

 
VOLUME 12 - ARTICLE 9
PAGES 197 - 236
Date Received: 1 Oct 2004
Date Published: 4 May 2005

http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol12/9/

Bookmark this page
Send this article to a friend
   
PDF file Click the icon to view and/or download the PDF file.
Once you are in the PDF file, use your browser back button to return to this page.

Additional files
The following additional files belong to this article. Click the icon to view the files. To save them click the icon with the right mouse button and choose "Save target as..." or "Save link as..."
file Projections

Abstract
This paper proposes to critically examine the United Nations projections on urbanisation. Both the estimates of current trends based on national data and the method of projection are evaluated. The theory of mobility transition is used as an alternative hypothesis. Projections are proposed using a polynomial model and compared to the UN projections, which are based on a linear model. The conclusion is that UN projections may overestimate the urban population for the year 2030 by almost one billion, or 19% in relative term. The overestimation would be particularly more pronounced for developing countries and may exceed 30% in Africa, India and Oceania.

Author's affiliation
Philippe Bocquier
Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD), France

Keywords
developed countries, developing countries, environment, model, poverty, projections, urban transition, urbanization

Word count (Main text)
8623

Most recent Similar Articles (in Demographic Research)
file [17-9] Effects of current education on second- and third-birth rates among Norwegian women and men born in 1964: Substantive interpretations and methodological issues (model)
file [15-12] Trajectories and models of individual growth (model)
file [15-6] First birth trends in developed countries: Persisting parenthood postponement (developed countries)
file [15-2] Youth poverty and transition to adulthood in Europe (poverty)
file [13-13] Population observatories as sources of information on mortality in developing countries (developing countries)

[ Back to previous page ]