Philippe Bocquier

http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol12/9/

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Projections

Abstract
This paper proposes to critically examine the United Nations projections on urbanisation. Both the estimates of current trends based on national data and the method of projection are evaluated. The theory of mobility transition is used as an alternative hypothesis. Projections are proposed using a polynomial model and compared to the UN projections, which are based on a linear model. The conclusion is that UN projections may overestimate the urban population for the year 2030 by almost one billion, or 19% in relative term. The overestimation would be particularly more pronounced for developing countries and may exceed 30% in Africa, India and Oceania.

Author's affiliation
Philippe Bocquier
Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD), France

Keywords
developed countries, developing countries, environment, model, poverty, projections, urban transition, urbanization

Word count (Main text)
8623

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