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Modelling regional variation of first-time births in Denmark 1980-1994 by an age-period-cohort model

 

Lau Caspar Thygesen
Lisbeth B. Knudsen
Niels Keiding

 
VOLUME 13 - ARTICLE 23
PAGES 573 - 596
Date Received: 1 Apr 2005
Date Published: 7 Dec 2005

http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol13/23/

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Abstract
Despite the small size of Denmark, there have traditionally been rather consistent regional differences in fertility rates. We apply the statistical age-period-cohort model to include the effect of these three time-related factors thereby concisely illuminating the regional differences of first-time births in Denmark. From the Fertility of Women and Couples Dataset we obtain data on number of births by nulliparous women by year (1980-1994), age (15-45) and county of residence. We show that the APC-model describes the fertility rates of nulliparous women satisfactorily. To catch the regional variation an interaction parameter between age and county is necessary, which provides a surprisingly good description suggesting that the county-specific age-distributions of first-time fertility rates differ. Our results are in general agreement with the 'moral geography' concepts of Tonboe (2001).

Author's affiliation
Lau Caspar Thygesen
National Institute of Public Health, Copenhagen, Denmark
Lisbeth B. Knudsen
Aalborg University, Denmark
Niels Keiding
University of Copenhagen, Denmark

Keywords
age-period-cohort models, Denmark, fertility, fertility rate, nulliparous women, regional variation

Word count (Main text)
5305

Other Articles by the same author/authors (in Demographic Research)
file[19-31] Biological and sociological interpretations of age-adjustment in studies of higher order birth rates
file[17-8] Education and second birth rates in Denmark 1981-1994
file[6-14] The Fertility Pattern of Twins and the General Population Compared: Evidence from Danish Cohorts 1945-64

Similar Articles (in Demographic Research)
file [17-8] Education and second birth rates in Denmark 1981-1994 (fertility, Denmark)
file [6-14] The Fertility Pattern of Twins and the General Population Compared: Evidence from Danish Cohorts 1945-64 (fertility, Denmark)
file [S3-7] Childbearing Developments in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden from the 1970s to the 1990s: A Comparison (fertility, Denmark)

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