Volume 13 - Article 23 | Pages 573-596

Modelling regional variation of first-time births in Denmark 1980-1994 by an age-period-cohort model

By Lau Caspar Thygesen, Lisbeth B. Knudsen, Niels Keiding


Date received:	01 Apr 2005
Date published:	07 Dec 2005
Word count:	5305
Keywords:	age-period-cohort models, Denmark, fertility, fertility rate, nulliparous women, regional variation
DOI:	10.4054/DemRes.2005.13.23

Abstract

Despite the small size of Denmark, there have traditionally been rather consistent regional differences in fertility rates. We apply the statistical age-period-cohort model to include the effect of these three time-related factors thereby concisely illuminating the regional differences of first-time births in Denmark. From the Fertility of Women and Couples Dataset we obtain data on number of births by nulliparous women by year (1980-1994), age (15-45) and county of residence. We show that the APC-model describes the fertility rates of nulliparous women satisfactorily. To catch the regional variation an interaction parameter between age and county is necessary, which provides a surprisingly good description suggesting that the county-specific age-distributions of first-time fertility rates differ. Our results are in general agreement with the 'moral geography' concepts of Tonboe (2001).

Author's Affiliation

Lau Caspar Thygesen - National Institute of Public Health, Copenhagen, Denmark [Email]
Lisbeth B. Knudsen - Aalborg University, Denmark [Email]
Niels Keiding - University of Copenhagen, Denmark [Email]