Leigh F. Johnson
Rob Dorrington

http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol14/22/

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Abstract
This paper describes an approach to incorporating the impact of HIV/AIDS and the effects of HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment programmes into a cohort component projection model of the South African population. The modelled HIV-positive population is divided into clinical and treatment stages, and it is demonstrated that the age profile and morbidity profile of the HIV-positive population is changing significantly over time. HIV/AIDS is projected to have a substantial demographic impact in South Africa. Prevention programmes - social marketing, voluntary counselling and testing, prevention of mother-to-child transmission and improved treatment for sexually transmitted diseases - are unlikely to reduce AIDS mortality significantly in the short term. However, more immediate reductions in mortality can be achieved when antiretroviral treatment is introduced.

Author's affiliation
Leigh F. Johnson
University of Cape Town, South Africa
Rob Dorrington
University of Cape Town, South Africa

Keywords
antiretroviral treatment, demographic impact, HIV/AIDS prevention, simulation model, South Africa

Word count (Main text)
8156

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