Volume 16 - Article 5 | Pages 121-140
Inconsistencies in age profiles of HIV prevalence: A dynamic model applied to Zambia
| Date received: | 18 Apr 2006 |
| Date published: | 27 Feb 2007 |
| Word count: | 4039 |
| Keywords: | AIDS/HIV, dynamics of epidemics, heterosexual transmission, mathematical model, Sub-Saharan Africa, Zambia |
| DOI: | 10.4054/DemRes.2007.16.5 |
Abstract
A two-sex compartmental model of the dynamics of HIV infection was developed and applied to the case of Zambia. Parameters include age specific rates of fertility, mortality, entry into sexual life, number of partners and age of partners. They were all derived from empirical data from Demographic and Health Surveys, and applied by single year of age. The model was unable to fit age and sex patterns of infection observed in 2001. Current knowledge of HIV transmission does not allow fitting the dynamics of HIV epidemics. Further research is needed to understand the dynamics of HIV heterosexual epidemics in Africa.
Author's Affiliation
Pauline M. Leclerc - Université Paris 6, France
Michel Garenne - Institut Pasteur, France
Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research
»
When the group encourages extramarital sex: Difficulties in HIV/AIDS prevention in rural Malawi
Volume 28 - Article 30 | Keywords: AIDS/HIV, Sub-Saharan Africa
»
An inquiry into the uneven distribution of women’s HIV infection in rural Malawi
Volume 25 - Article 28 | Keywords: AIDS/HIV, Sub-Saharan Africa
»
Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi
Volume 20 - Article 31 | Keywords: AIDS/HIV, Sub-Saharan Africa
»
The Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project 2004-06: Data collection, data quality, and analysis of attrition
Volume 20 - Article 21 | Keywords: AIDS/HIV, Sub-Saharan Africa
»
Overestimating HIV infection: The construction and accuracy of subjective probabilities of HIV infection in rural Malawi
Volume 20 - Article 6 | Keywords: AIDS/HIV, Sub-Saharan Africa
Articles
Citations
Cited References: 34
»View the references of this article
Download to Citation Manager
Similar Articles
PubMed
»Articles by Pauline M. Leclerc
Google Scholar
»Articles by Pauline M. Leclerc