Tom A. Moultrie
Rob Dorrington

http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol19/46/

doi:10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.46

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Abstract
Almost all commonly used indirect fertility estimation methods rely on the P/F ratio. As originally conceived, the ratio compares cumulated cohort fertility with cumulated period fertility on the basis of three, fairly strong, assumptions. The intention of this paper is to interrogate what happens to the results produced by the P/F ratio method as each of these three assumptions is violated, first independently, and then concurrently. These investigations are important given the generally poor quality of census data collected in developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, and the radically altering demographic conditions associated with a generalised HIV/AIDS epidemic in the region.

Author's affiliation
Tom A. Moultrie
University of Cape Town, South Africa
Rob Dorrington
University of Cape Town, South Africa

Keywords
AIDS/HIV, developing countries, estimation, fertility, indirect techniques

Word count (Main text)
6228

Other articles by the same author/authors (in Demographic Research)

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	[20-13] Dispensing with marriage: Marital and partnership trends in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa 2000-2006
	[14-22] Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions

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