Table1 Table3

Table 2

Table 2:
Age distribution among elderly persons aged 65+ in China
 

    Projection using the model developed by Zeng and Vaupel   Projection by U.N. population Division

Age

1990

2000

2020

2040

2050

 

2000

2020

2040

2050

 
 

65-74 #

44.4

62.1

111.3

188.0

150.1

60.2

114.3

194.3

158.7

%

70.5

66.3

65.8

59.2

45.4

68.8

68.4

60.5

47.6

 

75-84 #

16.3

26.4

44.0

96.5

131.6

23.6

42.3

97.8

132.6

%

25.9

28.2

26.0

30.4

39.8

27.0

25.3

30.5

39.7

 

85+ #

2.3

5.2

13.9

33.0

48.9

3.7

10.5

29.0

42.3

%

3.7

5.5

8.2

10.4

14.8

4.2

6.3

9.0

12.7

 

80+ #

7.7

13.1

32.2

76.1

114.4

11.5

26.6

64.3

99.6

%

12.2

14.0

19.0

24.0

34.6

13.2

15.9

20.0

29.9

 

75+ #

18.6

31.6

57.9

129.5

180.5

27.3

52.9

126.8

174.9

%

29.5

33.7

34.2

40.8

54.6

31.2

31.6

39.5

52.4

 

65+ #

63.0

93.7

169.2

317.5

330.6

87.5

167.2

321.1

333.6

%

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Sources:
(1) Projections using the model developed by Zeng and Vaupel (1989) are quoted from Zeng (1994:77)
(2) Projections by U.N. population Division are quoted from U.N. population (1999)

 

 

Table1 Table3

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Family Dynamics of 63 Million (in 1990) to more than 330 Million (in 2050) Elders in China
Zeng Yi, Linda George
© 2000 Max-Planck-Gesellschaft ISSN 1435-9871
http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol2/5