Volume 22 - Article 12 | Pages 289-320

The effects of shocks in early life mortality on later life expectancy and mortality compression: A cohort analysis


Date received:	30 Jul 2008
Date published:	05 Mar 2010
Word count:	6896
Keywords:	cohort effects, early life conditions, mortality
DOI:	10.4054/DemRes.2010.22.12

Abstract

I study how shocks in cohort-level early life conditions, as represented by deviations from trend in mortality before age 5, affect later mortality. I use data for six European countries and find that shocks that increase infant mortality decrease later life expectancy between ages 5-30. The effect is strong for England and Wales but small or insignificant for other countries. Shocks that increase mortality at ages 1-5 increase life expectancy between ages 5-30 and compress the mortality distribution. For both shocks the effects are weak at older ages. These results suggest that early life conditions have a transitory effect and potentially only little influence on old-age mortality.