Samir KC
Bilal Barakat
Anne Goujon
Vegard Skirbekk
Warren C. Sanderson
Wolfgang Lutz

http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol22/15/

doi:10.4054/DemRes.2010.22.15

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Abstract

Using demographic multi-state, cohort-component methods, we produce projections for 120 countries (covering 93% of the world population in 2005) by five-year age groups, sex, and four levels of educational attainment for the years 2005-2050. Taking into account differentials in fertility and mortality by education level, we present the first systematic global educational attainment projections according to four widely differing education scenarios. The results show the possible range of future educational attainment trends around the world, thereby contributing to long-term economic and social planning at the national and international levels, and to the assessment of the feasibility of international education goals.

Author's affiliation
Samir KC
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria
Bilal Barakat
Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria
Anne Goujon
Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria
Vegard Skirbekk
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria
Warren C. Sanderson
State University of New York, Stony Brook, United States of America
Wolfgang Lutz
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria

Keywords
differential fertility, differential of mortality, education, education goals, education policies, education scenarios, educational attainment, human capital, multi-state methods, projections

Word count (Main text)
14659

Other articles by the same author/authors (in Demographic Research)

	[18-5] Fertility trends by social status
	[16-2] A new perspective on population aging
	[13-7] Decomposing the change in labour force indicators over time

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