Volume 22 - Article 15 | Pages 383-472

Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050

By Samir KC, Bilal Barakat, Anne Goujon, Vegard Skirbekk, Warren C. Sanderson, Wolfgang Lutz

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Date received:20 Feb 2009
Date published:16 Mar 2010
Word count:14659
Keywords:differential fertility, differential of mortality, education, education goals, education policies, education scenarios, educational attainment, human capital, multi-state methods, projections


Using demographic multi-state, cohort-component methods, we produce projections for 120 countries (covering 93% of the world population in 2005) by five-year age groups, sex, and four levels of educational attainment for the years 2005-2050. Taking into account differentials in fertility and mortality by education level, we present the first systematic global educational attainment projections according to four widely differing education scenarios. The results show the possible range of future educational attainment trends around the world, thereby contributing to long-term economic and social planning at the national and international levels, and to the assessment of the feasibility of international education goals.

Author's Affiliation

Samir KC - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria [Email]
Bilal Barakat - Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria [Email]
Anne Goujon - Vienna Institute of Demography, Austria [Email]
Vegard Skirbekk - Columbia University, United States of America [Email]
Warren C. Sanderson - State University of New York, Stony Brook, United States of America [Email]
Wolfgang Lutz - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria [Email]

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