Volume 22 - Article 20 | Pages 579-634

No consistent effects of prenatal or neonatal exposure to Spanish flu on late-life mortality in 24 developed countries

By Alan Cohen, John Tillinghast, Vladimir Canudas-Romo


Date received:	14 Mar 2009
Date published:	13 Apr 2010
Word count:	5906
Keywords:	Barker hypothesis, fetal origins, Human Mortality Database, influenza, mortality, Spanish Influenza 1918-19
DOI:	10.4054/DemRes.2010.22.20

Abstract

We test the effects of early life exposure to disease on later health by looking for differences in late-life mortality in cohorts born around the 1918-1919 flu pandemic using data from the Human Mortality Database for 24 countries. After controlling for age, period, and sex effects, residual mortality rates did not differ systematically for flu cohorts relative to surrounding cohorts. We calculate at most a 20-day reduction in life expectancy for flu cohorts; likely values are much smaller. Estimates of influenza incidence during the pandemic suggest that exposure was high enough for this to be a robust negative result.

Author's Affiliation

Alan Cohen - Groupe de Recherche PRIMUS, Universite de Sherbrooke, Canada [Email]
John Tillinghast - Johns Hopkins University, United States of America [Email]
Vladimir Canudas-Romo - Johns Hopkins University, United States of America [Email]