Jason Thomas
Samuel J. Clark

http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol25/2/

doi:10.4054/DemRes.2011.25.2

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Abstract

This article presents an extension of the cohort component model of population projection (CCMPP) first formulated by Heuveline that is capable of modeling a population affected by HIV. We extend this work by developing the Leslie matrix representation of the CCMPP that greatly facilitates implementation of the model for parameter estimation and projecting. The Leslie matrix also contains information about the stable tendencies of the corresponding population, such as the stable age distribution and time to stability. We validate our reformulation of the model by comparing parameter estimates obtained through maximum likelihood and bootstrap methods to those presented by Heuveline.

Author's affiliation
Jason Thomas
University of Wisconsin-Madison, United States of America
Samuel J. Clark
University of Washington, United States of America

Keywords
Africa, AIDS/HIV, cohort component method, estimation, incidence, Leslie matrices, model, prevalence

Word count (Main text)
11300

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	[26-15] Estimating Trends in the Total Fertility Rate with Uncertainty Using Imperfect Data: Examples from West Africa
	[15-7] A general temporal data model and the structured population event history register
	[12-6] Toward a Unified Timestamp with explicit precision

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