Volume 25 - Article 2 | Pages 39-102
More on the Cohort-Component Model of Population Projection in the Context of HIV/AIDS: A Leslie Matrix Representation and New Estimates
References
Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E., and Clark, S.J. (2007). Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding. The Annals of Applied Statistics 1(1): 229-248.
| Weblink | doi:10.1214/07-AOAS111 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Asiimwe-Okiror, G., Opio, A.A., Musinguzi, J., Madraa, E., Tembo, G., and Carael, M. (1997). Change in sexual behaviour and decline in HIV infection among young pregnant women in urban Uganda. AIDS 11(14): 1757-1763.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00002030-199714000-00013 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Boerma, J.T., Urassa, M., Senkoro, K., Klokke, A., and Ng'weshemi, J.Z.L. (1999). Spread of HIV infection in a rural area of Tanzania. AIDS 13(10): 1233-1240.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00002030-199907090-00013 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Bowley, A.L. (1924). Births and population in Great Britain. Economic Journal 34(134): 188-192.
| Weblink | doi:10.2307/2223159 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Brahmbhatt, H., Kigozi, G., Wabweri-Mangen, F., Serwadda, D., Lutalo, T., Nalugoda, F., Sewankambo, N., Kiduggavu, M., Wawer, M., and Gray, R. (2006). Mortality in HIV-infected and uninfected children of HIV-infected and uninfected mothers in rural Uganda. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome 41(4): 504-508.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/01.qai.0000188122.15493.0a |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Cannan, E. (1895). The probability of a cessation of the growth of population in England and Wales during the next century. Economic Journal 5(20): 505-15.
| Weblink | doi:10.2307/2956626 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Carpenter, L.M., Nakiyingi, J.S., Ruberantwari, A., Malamba, S.S., Kamali, A., and Whitworth, J.A.G. (1997). Estimates of the impact of HIV infection on fertility in a rural Ugandan population cohort. Health Transition Review 7(Supplement 2): 113-126.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) [Kenya], Ministry of Health (MOH) [Kenya], and ORC Macro (2004). Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2003. Calverton, Maryland: CBS, MOH, ORC Macro (490pp.).
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Central Statistical Agency [Ethiopia] and ORC Macro (2006). Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey 2005. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and Calverton, Maryland, USA: Central Statistical Agency and ORC Macro (410pp).
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Central Statistical Office (CSO), Ministry of Health (MOH), Tropical Diseases Research Centre (TDCR), University of Zambia, and Macro International Inc. (2009). Zambia Demographic and Health Survey 2007. Calverton, Maryland, USA: CSO and Macro International Inc. (490pp.).
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Central Statistical Office (CSO) [Swaziland] and Macro International Inc. (2008). Swaziland Demographic and Health Survey 2006-07. Mbabane, Swaziland: Central Statistical Office and Macro International Inc.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Central Statistical Office (CSO) [Zambia], Central Board of Health, and ORC Macro (2003). Zambia Demographic and Health Survey 2001-2002. Calverton, Maryland, USA: Central Statistical Office, Central Board of Health, and ORC Macro (388pp.).
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Central Statistical Office (CSO) [Zimbabwe] and Macro International Inc. (2007). Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey 2005-2006. Calverton, Maryland, USA: CSO and Macro International Inc (456pp.).
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Chin, J. and Lwanga, S.K. (1991). Estimation and projection of adult AIDS cases: A simple epidemiological model. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 69(4): 399-406.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Clark, S.J., Eaton, J.W., Elmquist, M.M., Ottenweiller, N.R., and Snavely, J.K. (2008). Demographic consequences of HIV epidemics and effects of different male circumcision intervention designs: Suggestive findings from microsimulation. Seattle: Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Crampin, A.C., Floyd, S., Glynn, J.R., Sibande, F., Mulawa, D., Nyondo, A., Broadbent, P., Bliss, L., Ngwira, B., and Fine, P.E.M. (2002). Long-term follow-up of HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals in rural Malawi. AIDS 16(11): 1545-1550.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00002030-200207260-00012 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Crampin, A.C., Jahn, A., Kondowe, M., Ngwira, B.M., Hemmings, J., Glynn, J.R., Floyd, S., Fine, P.E.M., and Zaba, B. (2008). Use of antenatal clinic surveillance to assess the effect of sexual behavior on HIV prevalence in young women in Karonga district of Malawi. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome 48(2): 196-202.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/QAI.0b013e31817236c4 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Day, J.C. (1996). Population projections of the United States by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin: 1995 to 2050. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC: U.S. Bureau of the Census (Current Population Reports; P25-1130).
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
De Cock, K.M., Fowler, M.G., Mercier, E., Vincenzi, I., Saba, J., Hoff, E., Alnwick, D.J., Rogers, M., and Shaffer, N. (2000). Prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission in resource-poor countries. Journal of the American Medical Association 283(9): 1175-1182.
| Weblink | doi:10.1001/jama.283.9.1175 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Desgrées du Loû, A., Msellati, P., Yao, A., Noba, V., Viho, I., Ramon, R., Welffens-Ekra, C., and Dabis, F. (1999). Impaired fertility in HIV-1-infected pregnant women: A clinic-based survey in Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire, 1997. AIDS 13(4): 517-521.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00002030-199903110-00011 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Dorn, H.F. (1950). Pitfalls in population forecasts and projections. Journal of the American Statistical Association 45(251): 311-334.
| Weblink | doi:10.2307/2280290 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Fabiani, M., Accorsi, S., Lukwiya, M., Rosolen, T., Ayella, E.O., Onek, P.A., and Declich, S. (2001). Trend in HIV-1 prevalence in an antenatal clinic in north Uganda and adjusted rates for the general population. AIDS 15(1): 97-103.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00002030-200101050-00014 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Ford, K. and Hosegood, V. (2005). AIDS mortality and the mobility of children in KwaZulu Natal, South Africa. Demography 42(4): 757-768.
| Weblink | doi:10.1353/dem.2005.0029 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Fylkesnes, K., Ndhlovu, Z., Dasumba, D., Musonda, R.M., and Sichone, M. (1998). Studying the dynamics of the HIV epidemic: Population-based data compared with sentinel surveillance in Zambia. AIDS 12(10): 1227-1234.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00002030-199810000-00015 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Garenne, M.L., Tollman, S.M., Collinson, M.A., and Kahn, K. (2007). Fertility trends and net reproduction in Agincourt, rural South Africa, 1992-2004. Scandanavian Journal of Public Health 35(69): 68-76.
| Weblink | doi:10.1080/14034950701355650 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Ghys, P.D., Brown, T., Grassly, N.C., Garnett, G., Stanecki, K.A., Stover, J., and Walker, N. (2004). The UNAIDS estimation and projection package: A software package to estimate and project national HIV epidemics. Sexually Transmitted Infections 80(Supplement 1): i5-i9.
| Weblink | doi:10.1136/sti.2004.010199 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Ghys, P.D., Kufa, E., George, M.V., and for the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling Projections' ad hoc Working Group on interpreting trends in prevalence incidence of HIV infection in countreis with generalised epidemics (2006). Measuring trends in prevalence and incidence of HIV infection in countries with generalised epidemics. Sexually Transmitted Infections 82(Supplement 1): i52-i56.
| Weblink | doi:10.1136/sti.2005.016428 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Gray, R.H., Wawer, M.J., Serwadda, D., Sewankambo, N., Li, C., Wabwire-Mangen, F., Paxton, L., Kiwanuka, N., Kigozi, G., Konde-Lule, J., Quinn, T.C., and Gaydos, C.A. (1998). Population-based study of fertility in women with HIV-1 infection in Uganda. Lancet 351(9096): 98-103.
| Weblink | doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(97)09381-1 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Gregson, S. and Garnett, G.P. (2000). Contrasting gender differentials in HIV-1 prevalence and associated mortality increase in eastern and southern Africa: Artefact of data or natural course of epidemics? AIDS 14(Supplement 3): S85-S99.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Gregson, S., Nyamukapa, C., Lopman, B., Mushati, P., Garnett, G.P., Chandiwanat, S.K., and Anderson, R.M. (2007). Critique of early models of the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa based on contemporary empirical data from Zimbabwe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104(37): 14586 - 14591.
| Weblink | doi:10.1073/pnas.0611540104 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Gregson, S., Terceira, N., Kakowa, M., Mason, P.R., Anderson, R.M., Chandiwana, S.K., and Caraël, M. (2002). Study of bias in antenatal clinic HIV-1 surveillance data in a high contraceptive prevalence population in sub-Saharan Africa. AIDS 16(4): 643-652.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00002030-200203080-00017 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Grosskurth, H., Mosha, F., Todd, J., Senkoro, K., Newell, J., Lkokke, A., Changalucha, J., West, B., Mayaud, P., Gavyole, A., Gabone, R., Mabey, D., and Hayes, R. (1995). A community trial of the impact of improved sexually transmitted disease treatment on the HIV epidemic in rural Tanzania. AIDS 9(8): 927-934.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00002030-199508000-00015 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Hallett, T.B., Zaba, B., Todd, J., Lopman, B., Mwita, W., Biraro, S., Gregson, S., Boerman, J.T., and on behalf of the ALPHA Network (2008). Estimating incidence from prevalence in generalised HIV epidemics: Methods and validation. PLoS Medicine 5(4): 611-622.
| Weblink | doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0050080 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Hawken, M.P., Melis, R.D.J., Ngombo, D.T., Mandaliya, K.N., Ng'ang'a, L.W., Price, J., Dallabetta, G., and Temmerman, M. (2002). Opportunity for prevention of HIV and sexually transmitted infections in Kenyan youth: Results of a population-based survey. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome 31(5): 529-535.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00126334-200212150-00011 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Heuveline, P. (2003). HIV and population dynamics: A general model and maximum-likelihood standards for east Africa. Demography 40(2): 217-245.
| Weblink | doi:10.1353/dem.2003.0013 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Hira, S.K., Kamanga, J., Bhat, G.J., Mwale, C., Tembo, G., Luo, N., and Perine, P.L. (1989). Perinatal transmission of HIV-1 in Zambia. British Medical Journal 299(6718): 1250-1252.
| Weblink | doi:10.1136/bmj.299.6710.1250 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Hunter, S.-C., Isingo, R., Boerma, J.T., Urassa, M., Mwaluko, G.M.P., and Zaba, B. (2003). The association between HIV and fertility in a cohort study in rural Tanzania. Journal of Biosocial Science 35(2): 189-199.
| Weblink | doi:10.1017/S0021932003001895 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Institut National de la Statistiqu du Rwanda (INSR) and ORC Macro (2006). Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey 2005. Calverton, Maryland, USA: INSR and ORC Macro (447pp.).
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Institut National de la Statistique (INS) and Macro, ORC (2004). Enquete Demographique et de Sante du Cameroun 2004. Calverton, Maryland, USA: INS and ORC Macro.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Isingo, R., Zaba, B., Marston, M., Ndege, M., Mngara, J., Mwita, W., Wringe, A., Beckles, D., Changalucha, J., and Urassa, M. (2007). Survival after HIV infection and the pre-antiretroviral therapy era in a rural Tanzanian cohort. AIDS 21(Supplement 6): S5-S13.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/01.aids.0000299405.06658.a8 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Jackson, J.B., Musoke, P., Fleming, T., Guay, L.A., Bagenda, D., Allen, M., Nakabiito, C., Sherman, J., Bakaki, P., Owor, M., Ducar, C., Deseyve, M., Mwatha, A., Emel, L., Duefield, C., Mirochnick, M., Fowler, M.G., Mofenson, L., Miotti, P.G., Gigliotti, M., Bray, D., and Mmiro, F. (2003). Intrapartum and neonatal single-dose nevirapine compared with zidovudine for prevention of moether-to-child transmission of HIV-1 in Kampala, Uganda: 18-month follow-up of the HIVNET 012 randomised trial. Lancet 362(9387): 859-868.
| Weblink | doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(03)14341-3 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Kagaayi, J., Gray, R.H., Brahmbhatt, H., Kigozi, G., Galugoda, F., Wabwier-Mangen, F., Serwadda, D., Sewankambo, N., Ddungu, V., Ssebagala, D., Sekasanvu, J., Kigozi, G., Makumbi, F., Kiwanuka, N., Lutalo, T., Reynolds, S.J., and Wawer, M.J. (2008). Survival of infants born to HIV-positive mothers, by feeding modality, in Rakai, Uganda. PLoS ONE 3(12): e3877.
| Weblink | doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0003877 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Kahn, K., Tollman, S., Collinson, M.A., Clark, S.J., Twine, R., Clark, B.D., Shabangu, M., Gomez-Olive, F.X., Mokoena, O., and Garenne, M. (2007). Research into helath, population, and social transitions in rural South Africa: Data and methods of the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Scandanavian Journal of Public Health 35(69): 8-20.
| Weblink | doi:10.1080/14034950701505031 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Kengeya-Kayondo, J.F., Kamali, A., Nunn, A.J., Ruberantwari, A., Wagner, H.U.H., and Mulder, D.W. (1996). Incidence of HIV-1 infection in adults and socio-demographic characteristics of seroconverters in a Rural population in Uganda: 1990-1994. International Journal of Epidemiology 25(5): 1077-1082.
| Weblink | doi:10.1093/ije/25.5.1077 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Keyfitz, N. and Caswell, H. (2005). Applied Mathematical Demograph. Springer.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Kilian, A.H.D., Gregson, S., Ndyanabangi, B., Walusaga, K., Kipp, W., Sahlmüller, G., Garnett, G.P., Asiimwe-Okiror, G., Kabagambe, G., Weis, P., and von Sonnenburg, F. (1999). Reductions in risk behaviour provide the most consistent explanation of declining HIV prevalence in Uganda. AIDS 13(3): 391-398.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00002030-199902250-00012 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Kwesigabo, G., Killewo, J., Urassa, W., Lugalla, J., Emmelin, M., Mutembei, A., Mhalu, F., Biberfeld, G., Wall, S., and Sandstrom, A. (2005). HIV-1 infection prevalence and incidence trends in areas of contrasting levels of infection in the Kagera Region, Tanzania, 1987-2000. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome 40(5): 585-591.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/01.qai.0000168183.22147.c4 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Leclerc, P.M. and Garenne, M. (2007). Inconsistencies in age profiles of HIV prevalence: A dynamic model applied to Zambia. Demographic Research 16(5): 121-140.
| Weblink | doi:10.4054/DemRes.2007.16.5 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Lee, L.M., Wortley, P.M., Fleming, P.L., Eldred, L.J., and Gray, R.H. (2000). Duration of human immunodeficiency virus infection and likelihood of giving birth in a Medicaid population in Maryland. American Journal of Epidemiology 151(10): 1020-1028.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Leslie, P.H. (1945). On the use of matrices in certain population mathematics. Biometrika 33(3): 183-212.
| Weblink | doi:10.1093/biomet/33.3.183 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Lewis, J.J.C., Ronsmans, C., Ezeh, A., and Gregson, S. (2004). The population impact of HIV on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa. AIDS 18: S35-S43.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00002030-200406002-00005 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Liberia Institute of Statistics Geo-Information Services (LISGIS) [Liberia], Ministry of Health and Social Welfare [Liberia], National AIDS Control Program [Liberia], and Macro International Inc. (2008). Liberia Demographic and Health Survey 2007. Monrovia, Liberi: Liberia Institute of Statistics and Geo-Information Services (LISGIS) and Macro International Inc.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Lutalo, T., Gray, R.H., Wawer, M., Sewankambo, N., Serwadda, D., Laeyendecker, O., Kiwanuka, N., Nalugoda, F., Kigozi, G., Ndyanabo, A., Bwanika, J.B., Reynolds, S.J., Quinn, T.C., and Opendi, P. (2007). Survival of HIV-infected treatment-naive individuals with documented dates of seroconversion in Rakai, Uganda. AIDS 21(Supplement 6): S15-S19.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/01.aids.0000299406.44775.de |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Mandelbrot, L., Msellati, P., Meda, N., Leroy, V., Likikouët, R., Van de Perre, P., Dequae-Merchadoux, L., Sylla-Koko, F., Ouangre, A., Ouassa, T., Ramon, R., Gautier-Charpentier, L., Cartoux, M., Dosso, M., Dabis, F., and Welffens-Ekra, C. (2002). 15 month follow up of African children following vaginal cleansing with benzalkonium chloride of their HIV infected mothers during late pregnancy and delivery. Sexually Transmitted Infections 78(4): 267-270.
| Weblink | doi:10.1136/sti.78.4.267 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Marston, M., Zaba, B., Salomon, J.A., Brahmbhatt, H., and Bagenda, D. (2005). Estimating the net effect of HIV on child mortality in African Populations affected by generalized HIV epidemics. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome 38(2): 219-227.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00126334-200502010-00015 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
McGrath, N., Kranzer, K., Saul, J., Ctrampin, A.C., Malema, S., Kachiwanda, L., Zaba, B., Jahn, A., Fine, P.E.M., and Glynn, J.R. (2007). Estimating the need for antiretroviral treatment and an assessment of a simplified HIV/AIDS case definition in rural Malawi. AIDS 21: S105-S113.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/01.aids.0000299417.69432.65 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Ministrère du Plan et Macro International (2008). Enquête Démographique et de Santé, Rèpublique Démographique du Congo 2007. Calverton, Maryland, USA: Ministrère du Plan et ORC Macro.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Ministry of Health and Social Welfare (MOHSW) [Lesotho], Bureau of Statistics (BOS) [Lesotho], and Macro, OCR (2005). Lesotho Demographic and Health Survey 2004. Calverton, Maryland: MOH, BOS, and ORC Macro.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Ministry of Health (MOH) [Uganda] and ORC Macro (2006). Uganda HIV/AIDS Sero-behavioural Survey 2004-2005. Calverton, Maryland, USA: Ministry of Health and ORC Macro (194pp.).
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Miotti, P.G., Taha, T.E.T., Kumwenda, N.I., Braodhead, R., Mtimavalye, L.A.R., der Hoeven, L.V., Chiphangwi, J.D., Limoba, G., and Biggar, R.J. (1999). HIV transmission through breastfeeding: A study in Malawi. Journal of the American Medical Association 282(8): 744-749.
| Weblink | doi:10.1001/jama.282.8.744 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Morgan, D., Mahe, C., Mayanja, B., Okongo, J.M., Lubega, R., and Whitworth, J.A.G. (2002). HIV-1 infection in rural Africa: Is there a difference in median time to AIDS and survival compared with that in industrialized countries? AIDS 16(4): 597-603.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Murray, J., Sonnenberg, P., Nelson, G., Bester, A., Shearer, S., and Glynn, J.R. (2007). Cause of death and presence of respiratory disease at the autopsy in an HIV-1 serconversion cohort of southern African gold miners. AIDS 21(Supplement 6): S97-S104.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/01.aids.0000299416.61808.24 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Mwaluko, G., Urassa, M., Isingo, R., Zaba, B., and Boerma, J.T. (2003). Trends in HIV and sexual behaviour in a longitudinal study in a rural population population in Tanzania, 1994-2000. AIDS 17: 2645-2651.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00002030-200312050-00012 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
National Statistical Office (NSO) [Malawi] and ORC Macro (2005). Malawi Demographic and Health Survey 2004. Calverton, Maryland, USA: NSO and ORC Macro (454pp.).
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Nduati, R., John, G., Mbori-Ngacha, D., Richardson, B., Overbaugh, J., Mwatha, A., Ndinya-Achola, J., Bwayo, J., Onyango, F.E., Hughes, J., and Kreiss, J. (2000). Effect of breastfeeding and formula feeding on transmission of HIV-1: A randomized clinical trial. Journal of the American Medical Association 283(9): 1167-1174.
| Weblink | doi:10.1001/jama.283.9.1167 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Newell, M.-L., Coovadia, H., Cortina-Borja, M., Rollins, N., Gaillard, P., and Dabis, F. (2004). Mortality of infected and uninfected infants born to HIV-infected mothers in Africa: A pooled analysis. Lancet 364(9441): 1236-1243.
| Weblink | doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(04)17140-7 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Nguyen, R.H.N., Gange, S.J., Wabwire-Mangen, F., Sewankambo, N.K., Serwadda, D., Wawer, M.J., Quinn, T.C., and Gray, R.H. (2006). Reduced fertility among HIV-infected women associated with viral load in Rakai district, Uganda. International Journal of STD and AIDS 17(12): 842-846.
| Weblink | doi:10.1258/095646206779307586 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Nicoll, A., Newell, M.-L., Peckham, C., Luo, C., and Savage, F. (2000). Infant feeding and HIV-1 infection. AIDS 14(Supplement 3): S57-S74.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Nunn, A.J., Kengeya-Kayondo, J.F., Malamba, S.S., Seeley, J.A., and Mulder, D.W. (1994). Risk factors for HIV-1 infection in adults in a rural Ugandan community: A population study. AIDS 8(1): 81-86.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00002030-199401000-00012 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Nunn, A.J., Mulder, D.W., Kamali, A., Ruberantwari, A., Kengeya-Kayondo, J.F., and Whitworth, J. (1997). Mortality associated with HIV-1 infection over five years in a rural Ugandan population: Cohort study. British Medical Journal 315(7111): 767-771.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Nyirenda, M., Hosegood, V., Bärnighausen, T., and Newell, M.-L. (2007). Mortality levels and trends by HIV serostatus in rural South Africa. AIDS 21(Supplement 6): S73-S79.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/01.aids.0000299413.82893.2b |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Pearl, R. and Reed, L.J. (1920). On the rate of growth of the population of the United States since 1790 and its mathematical representation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 6(6): 275-288.
| Weblink | doi:10.1073/pnas.6.6.275 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Peters, P.J., Karita, E., Kayitenkore, K., Meinzen-Derr, J., Kim, D.-J., Tichacek, A., and Allen, S.A. (2007). HIV-infected Rwandan women have a high frequency of long-term survival. AIDS 21(Supplement 6): S31-S37.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/01.aids.0000299408.52399.e1 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Petra Study Team (2002). Efficacy of three short-course regimens of zidovudine and lamivudine in preventing early and late transmission of HIV-1 from mother to child in Tanzania, South Africa, and Uganda (Petra Study): A randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Lancet 359: 1178-1186.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Poole, D. and Raftery, A.E. (2000). Inference for deterministic simulation models: The Bayesian melding approach. Journal of the American Statistical Association 95(452): 1244-1255.
| Weblink | doi:10.2307/2669764 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Porter, K. and Zaba, B. (2004). The empirical evidence for the impact of HIV on adult mortality in the developing world: Data from serological studies. AIDS 18(Supplement 2): S9-S17.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Pritchett, H.S. (1891). A formula for predicting the population of the United States. Publications of the American Statistical Association 2(14): 278-286.
| Weblink | doi:10.2307/2276575 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
R Development Core Team (2011). The R Project for Statistical Computing [electronic resource]. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing.
| Weblink | http://www.R-project.org |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Raftery, A.E. (1995). Bayesian model selection in social research. Sociological Methodology 25: 111-163.
| Weblink | doi:10.2307/271063 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Read, J.S. and Breastfeeding HIV International Transmission Study Group (2004). Late postnatal transmission of HIV-1 in breast-fed children: An individual patient data meta-analysis. Journal of Infectious Diseases 189(12): 2154-2166.
| Weblink | doi:10.1086/420834 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Saidel, T., Sokal, D., Rice, J., Buzingo, T., and Hassig., S (1996). Validation of a method to estimate age-specific human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence in developing countries using population-based seroprevalence data. American Journal of Epidemiology 144(3): 214-223.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Sedgh, G., Larsen, U., Spiegelman, D., Msamanga, G., and Fawzi, W.W. (2005). HIV-1 disease progression and fertility in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome 39(4): 439-445.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/01.qai.0000148529.58963.83 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Serwadda, D., Wawer, M.J., Musgrave., S.D., Sewankambo, N.K., Kaplan, J.E., and Gray, R.H. (1992). HIV risk factors in three geographic strata of rural Rakai District, Uganda. AIDS 6(9): 983-989.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00002030-199209000-00012 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Sewankambo, N.K., Gray, R.H., Ahmad, S., Serwadda, D., Wabwire-Mangen, F., Nalugoda, F., Kiwanuka, N., Lutalo, T., Kigozi, G., Li, C., Meehan, M.P., Brahmbatt, H., and Wawer, M.J. (2000). Mortality associated with HIV infection in rural Rakai District, Uganda. AIDS 14(15): 2391-2400.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00002030-200010200-00021 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Sewankambo, N.K., Wawer, M.J., Gray, R.H., Serwadda, D., Li, C., Stallings, R.Y., Musgrave, S.D., and Konde-Lule, J. (1994). Demographic impact of HIV infection in rural Rakai District, Uganda: Results of a population-based cohort study. AIDS 8(12): 1707-1713.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Shafer, L.A., Biraro, S., Nakiyingi-Miiro, J., Kamali, A., Ssematimba, D., Ouma, J., Ojwiya, A., Hughes, P., Van der Paal, L., Whitworth, J.A.G., Opio, A.A., and Grosskurth, H. (2008). HIV prevalence and incidence are no longer falling in southwest Uganda: Evidence from a rural population cohort 1989-2005. AIDS 22(13): 1641-1649.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/QAD.0b013e32830a7502 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Shao, J., Burbaker, G., Levin, A., Kibauri, A., Massesa, E., Siso, Z., Konings, E., Clayton, Y., Kumby, D., Alexander, S., Waters, D., Drummond, J., Biggar, R.J., Scott, G., Miller, G., Goedert, J.J., and Blattner, W.A. (1994). Population-based study of HIV-1 infection in 4,086 subjects in northwest Tanzania. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome 7(4): 397-402.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Simonon, A., Lepage, P., Karita, E., Hitimana, D.-G., Dabis, F., Msellati, P., Van Goethem, C., Nsengumuremyi, F., Bazubagira, A., and Van de Perre, P. (1994). An assessment of the timing of mother-to-child-transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 by means of polymerase chain reaction. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome 7(9): 952-957.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Slutsker, L., Cabeza, J., Wirima, J.J., and Steketee, R.W. (1994). HIV-1 infection among women of reproductive age in a rural district in Malawi. AIDS 8(9): 1337-1340.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00002030-199409000-00019 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Smith, J., Mushati, P., Kurwa, F., Mason, P.R., Gregson, S., and Lopman, B. (2007). Changing patterns of adult mortality as the HIV epidemic matures in Manicaland, eastern Zimbabwe. AIDS 21(Supplment 6): S81-S86.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/01.aids.0000299414.60022.1b |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Smith, S.K. and Sincich, T. (1988). Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors. Demography 25(3): 461-474.
| Weblink | doi:10.2307/2061544 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Sokal, D.C., Buzingo, T., Nitunga, N., Kadende, P., and Standaert, B. (1993). Geographic and temporal stability of HIV seroprevalence among pregnant women in Bujumbura, Burundi. AIDS 7(11): 1481-1484.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00002030-199311000-00012 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Spira, R., Lepage, P., Msellati, P., Van de Perre, P., Leroy, V., Simonon, A., Karita, E., and Dabis, F. (1999). Natural history of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection in children: A five-year prospective study in Rawanda. Pediatrics 104(5): e56.
| Weblink | doi:10.1542/peds.104.5.e56 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Stover, J., Walker, N., Grassly, N.C., and Marston, M. (2006). Projecting the demographic impact of AIDS and the number of people in need of treatment: Updates to the Spectrum projection package. Sexually Transmitted Infections 82(Supplement 3): iii45-iii50.
| Weblink | doi:10.1136/sti.2006.020172 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Taha, T.E., Dallabetta, G.A., Hoover, D.R., Dhiphangwi, J.D., Mtimavalye, L.A.R., Liomba, G.N., Kumwenda, N.I., and Miotti, P.G. (1998). Trends of HIV-1 and sexually transmitted diseases among pregnant and postpartum women in urban Malawi. AIDS 12(2): 197-203.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00002030-199802000-00010 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Tanzania Commission for AIDS (TACAIDS), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and ORC Macro (2005). Tanzania HIV/AIDS Indicator Survey 2003-2004. Calverton, Maryland, USA: TACAIDS and ORC Macro (132pp.).
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Tanzania Commission for AIDS (TACAIDS), Zanzibar AIDS Commission (ZAC), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Office of the Chief Government Statistician (OCGS), and Macro International Inc. (2008). Tanzania HIV/AIDS and Malaria Indicator Survey 2007-2008. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: TACAIDS, ZAC, NBS, OCGS, and Macro International Inc. (272pp.).
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Terceira, N., Gregson, S., Zaba, B., and Mason, P.R. (2003). The contribution of HIV to fertility decline in rural Zimbabwe, 1985-2000. Population Studies 57(2): 149-164.
| Weblink | doi:10.1080/0032472032000097074 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Timaeus, I.M. and Jasseh, M. (2004). Adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from demographic and health surveys. Demography 41(4): 757-772.
| Weblink | doi:10.1353/dem.2004.0037 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Todd, J., Balira, R., Grosskurth, H., Mayaud, P., Mosha, F., ka-Gina, G., Klokke, A., Gabbone, R., Gavyole, A., Mabey, D., and Hayes, R. (1997). HIV-associated adult mortality in a rural Tanzanian population. AIDS 11(6): 801-807.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00002030-199706000-00013 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
UNAIDS (2008). Report on the global AIDS epidemic 2008. Geneva: UNAIDS.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections (2002). Improved methods and assumptions for estimation of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and its impact: Recommendations of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections. AIDS 16(9): W1-W14.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00002030-200206140-00024 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
United Nations (1982). Model Life Tables for Developing Countries. New York: United Nations.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
United Nations (1998). AIDS, mortality, and population change - Technical meeting on the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS. New York: United Nations.
| Weblink | http://www.un.org/esa/population/pubsarchive/ ... |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
United Nations (1999). World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision. New York: United Nations.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
United Nations (2004). World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision. New York: United Nations.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Urassa, M., Boerma, J.T., Isingo, R., Ngalula, J., Ng'weshemi, J., Mwaluko, G., and Zaba, B. (2001). The impact of HIV/AIDS on mortality and household mobility in rural Tanzania. AIDS 15(15): 2017-2023.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00002030-200110190-00015 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Urassa, M., Kumogola, Y., Isingo, R., Mwaluko, G., Makelemo, B., Mugeye, K., Boerma, T., Calleja, T., Slaymaker, E., and Zaba, B. (2006). HIV prevalence and sexual behaviour changes measured in an antenatal clinic setting in northern Tanzania. Sexually Transmitted Infections 82(4): 301-306.
| Weblink | doi:10.1136/sti.2005.016766 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Van der Paal, L., Shafer, L.A., Todd, J., Mayanja, B.N., Whitworth, J.A.G., and Grosskurth, H. (2007). HIV-1 disease progression and mortality before the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy in rural Uganda. AIDS 21(Supplement 6): S21-S29.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/01.aids.0000299407.52399.05 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Wachter, K.W., Knodel, J.E., and Van Landingham, M. (2002). AIDS and the elderly in Thailand: Projecting familial impacts. Demography 39(1): 25-41.
| Weblink | doi:10.1353/dem.2002.0012 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Wambura, M., Urassa, M., Isingo, R., Ndege, M., Marston, M., Slaymaker, E., Mngara, J., Changalucha, J., Boerma, T.J., and Zaba, B. (2007). HIV prevalence and incidence in rural Tanzania: Results from 10 years of follow-up in an open-cohort study. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome 46(5): 616-623.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/QAI.0b013e31815a571a |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Wawer, M.J., Serwadda, D., Musgrave, S.D., Konde-Lule, J., Musagara, M., and Sewankambo, N.K. (1991). Dynamics of spread of HIV-1 infection in a rural district of Uganda. British Medical Journal 303(6813): 1303-1306.
| Weblink | doi:10.1136/bmj.303.6813.1303 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Wawer, M.J., Sewankambo, N.K., Berkley, S., Serwadda, D., Musgrave, S.D., Gray, R.H., Musagara, M., Stallings, R.Y., and Konde-Lule, J.K. (1994). Incidence of HIV-1 infection in a rural region of Uganda. British Medical Journal 308(6922): 171-173.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Welz, T., Hosegood, V., Jaffar, S., Batzing-Feigenbaum, J., Herbst, K., and Newell, M.-L. (2007). Continued very high prevalence on HIV infection in rural Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa: A population-based longitudinal study. AIDS 21(11): 1467-1472.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/QAD.0b013e3280ef6af2 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Whelpton, P.K. (1936). An empirical method of calculating future population. Journal of the American Statistical Association 31(195): 457-473.
| Weblink | doi:10.2307/2278370 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Zaba, B., Bärnighausen, T., Biraro, S., Bwanika, J.B., Gregson, S., Hallett, T.B., Hosegood, V., Isingo, R., Lutalo, T., Marston, M., Mushati, P., Mwita, W., Ndyanabo, A., Shafer, L.A., Todd, J., Nyirenda, M., and Wringe, A. (2008). Diverse age patterns of HIV incidence rates in Africa. Paper presented at the XVII International AIDS conference, Mexico City, August 3-8, 2008.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Zaba, B., Carpenter, L.M., Boerma, J.T., Gregson, S., Nakiyingi, J.S., and Urassa, M. (2000). Adjusting ante-natal clinic data for improved estimates of HIV prevalence among women in sub-Saharan Africa. AIDS 14(17): 2741-2750.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00002030-200012010-00014 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Zaba, B. and Gregson, S. (1998). Measuring the impact of HIV on fertility in Africa. AIDS 12(1): S41-S50.
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Zaba, B., Marston, M., Crampin, A.C., Isingo, R., Biraro, S., Bärnighausen, T., Lopman, B., Lutalo, T., Glynn, J.R., and Todd, J. (2007). Age-specific mortality patterns in HIV-infected individuals: A comparative analysis of African community study data. AIDS 21(Supplement 6): S87-S96.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/01.aids.0000299415.67646.26 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Zijenah, L.S., Moulton, L.H., Iliff, P., Nathoo, K., Munjoma, M.W., Mutasa, K., Malaba, L., Zvandasara, P., Ward, B.J., Humphrey, J., and ZVITAMBO Study Group (2004). Timing of mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1 and infant mortality in the first 6 months of life in Harare, Zimbabwe. AIDS 18(2): 273-280.
| Weblink | doi:10.1097/00002030-200401230-00017 |
| Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |