Volume 25 - Article 23 | Pages 723-754

Constraint or choice? Disentangling fertility determinants by switching regressions

By Christoph Sax

Print this page  Send this article to a friend  Twitter

 

 
Date received:12 Jan 2011
Date published:15 Nov 2011
Word count:6000
Keywords:demographic transition, fertility determinants, income fertility relationship, supply-demand framework, switching regression
DOI:10.4054/DemRes.2011.25.23
 

Abstract

In 1953, many poor countries had not yet approached the demographic transition. Accordingly, income generally had a positive impact on fertility in poor countries, while it has a negative impact today. Easterlin´s supply-demand framework offers an explanation for this nonlinearity by attributing the positive relationship to Malthusian (or "supply") factors and the negative relationship to "demand" factors.

This paper estimates Easterlin´s supply-demand framework by switching regressions in a panel data set of 152 countries from 1953 to 1998. The technique allows identifying several factors affecting the Malthusian constraint and the demand for children, such as income, the source of income, urbanization, religion and the medical environment.

It is found that a combination of higher GDP per capita, a decrease in the infant death rate and an increase in education explain a substantial part of the reversal of the relationship between income and net fertility over the sample period.

Author's Affiliation

Christoph Sax - Universität Basel, Switzerland [Email]

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

» Socioeconomic fertility differentials in a late transition setting: A micro-level analysis of the Saguenay region in Quebec
Volume 30 - Article 38    | Keywords: demographic transition

» When not to have another baby: An evolutionary approach to low fertility
Volume 30 - Article 37    | Keywords: demographic transition

» Structural and diffusion effects in the Dutch fertility transition, 1870-1940
Volume 30 - Article 5    | Keywords: demographic transition

» Thinking about post-transitional demographic regimes: A reflection
Volume 28 - Article 46    | Keywords: demographic transition

» Age, education, and earnings in the course of Brazilian development: Does composition matter?
Volume 28 - Article 20    | Keywords: demographic transition

Articles

»Volume 25

 

Citations

 

 

Similar Articles

 

 

Jump to Article

Volume Page
Volume Article ID