Brian C. O'Neill
Deborah Balk
Melanie Brickman
Markos Ezra

http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol4/8/

doi:10.4054/DemRes.2001.4.8

	Click the icon to view and/or download the PDF file. Once you are in the PDF file, use your browser back button to return to this page.

Abstract

Interdisciplinary studies that draw on long-term, global population projections often make limited use of projection results, due at least in part to the historically opaque nature of the projection process. We present a guide to such projections aimed at researchers and educators who would benefit from putting them to greater use.
Drawing on new practices and new thinking on uncertainty, methodology, and the likely future courses of fertility and life expectancy, we discuss who makes projections and how, and the key assumptions upon which they are based. We also compare methodology and recent results from prominent institutions and provide a guide to other sources of demographic information, pointers to projection results, and an entry point to key literature in the field.

Author's affiliation
Brian C. O'Neill
Brown University, United States of America
Deborah Balk
Columbia University, United States of America
Melanie Brickman
Columbia University, United States of America
Markos Ezra
Brown University, United States of America

Keywords
forecasting, population projections, projection methodology, uncertainty

Word count (Main text)
24372

Similar articles in Demographic Research

[6-15] Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway (uncertainty, forecasting)

[ Back to previous page ]