Volume 6 - Article 7 | Pages 145-190

Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures:: Assessing the Implications of Delayed Childbearing for Cohort Fertility in Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain

By Hans-Peter Kohler, PhD, José Antonio Ortega

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Date received:29 Nov 2001
Date published:01 Mar 2002
Word count:12937
Keywords:cohort fertility, fertility, fertility postponement, fertility projection, low fertility, Netherlands, parity progression measures, Spain, Sweden, tempo adjustment
DOI:10.4054/DemRes.2002.6.7
Weblink:For data and programs to replicate the analyses for Sweden, see http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/~hpkohler/
 For formal development of tempo-adjusted parity progression measures, see Publication 6-6 in Demographic Research.
 

Abstract

In this paper we apply tempo-adjusted period parity progression ratios (Kohler and Ortega 2002) to Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain. These countries represent three distinct demographic patterns in contemporary Europe and are of particular interest for demographers. The goal of our analyses is to (a) describe past fertility trends in these countries in terms of synthetic cohorts and (b) project the level and distribution of completed fertility in cohorts who have not finished childbearing.
Our analyses suggest that the most recent period fertility patterns in these countries do not imply substantial increases in childlessness even in younger cohorts. Moreover, if these patterns prevail in the future, young cohorts would reach completed fertility levels between 1.5-1.75.

Author's Affiliation

Hans-Peter Kohler, PhD - University of Pennsylvania, United States of America [Email]
José Antonio Ortega - Universidad de Salamanca, Spain [Email]

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