Volume 9 - Article 2 | Pages 25–40  

The problematic estimation of "imitation effects" in multilevel models

By Øystein Kravdal

Abstract

It seems plausible that a person’s demographic behaviour may be influenced by that among other people in the community, for example because of an inclination to imitate. When estimating multilevel models from clustered individual data, some investigators might perhaps feel tempted to try to capture this effect by simply including on the right-hand side the average of the dependent variable, constructed by aggregation within the clusters. However, such modelling must be avoided.
According to simulation experiments based on real fertility data from India, the estimated effect of this obviously endogenous variable can be very different from the true effect. Also the other community effect estimates can be strongly biased. An "imitation effect" can only be estimated under very special assumptions that in practice will be hard to defend.

Author's Affiliation

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Are sibling models a suitable tool in analyses of how reproductive factors affect child mortality?
Volume 42 - Article 28

Taking birth year into account when analysing effects of maternal age on child health and other outcomes: The value of a multilevel-multiprocess model compared to a sibling model
Volume 40 - Article 43

The increasing mortality advantage of the married: The role played by education
Volume 38 - Article 20

What has high fertility got to do with the low birth weight problem in Africa?
Volume 28 - Article 25

Further evidence of community education effects on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa
Volume 27 - Article 22

Children's stunting in sub-Saharan Africa: Is there an externality effect of high fertility?
Volume 25 - Article 18

Demographers’ interest in fertility trends and determinants in developed countries: Is it warranted?
Volume 22 - Article 22

Does income inequality really influence individual mortality?: Results from a ‘fixed-effects analysis’ where constant unobserved municipality characteristics are controlled
Volume 18 - Article 7

Effects of current education on second- and third-birth rates among Norwegian women and men born in 1964: Substantive interpretations and methodological issues
Volume 17 - Article 9

Does cancer affect the divorce rate?
Volume 16 - Article 15

A simulation-based assessment of the bias produced when using averages from small DHS clusters as contextual variables in multilevel models
Volume 15 - Article 1

Educational differentials in male mortality in Russia and northern Europe: A comparison of an epidemiological cohort from Moscow and St. Petersburg with the male populations of Helsinki and Oslo
Volume 10 - Article 1

The impact of individual and aggregate unemployment on fertility in Norway
Volume 6 - Article 10

Is the Previously Reported Increase in Second- and Higher-order Birth Rates in Norway and Sweden from the mid-1970s Real or a Result of Inadequate Estimation Methods?
Volume 6 - Article 9

The High Fertility of College Educated Women in Norway: An Artefact of the Separate Modelling of Each Parity Transition
Volume 5 - Article 6

A search for aggregate-level effects of education on fertility, using data from Zimbabwe
Volume 3 - Article 3

An Illustration of the Problems Caused by Incomplete Education Histories in Fertility Analyses
Special Collection 3 - Article 6

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

The COVID-19 pandemic and fertility responses: TFR simulation analysis using parity progressions in South Korea
Volume 49 - Article 32    | Keywords: COVID-19, fertility intentions, marriage intentions, simulation

Unobserved population heterogeneity and dynamics of health disparities
Volume 43 - Article 34    | Keywords: birth cohorts, cumulative advantage, life expectancy, mortality selection, simulation, unobserved frailty

Population aging caused by a rise in the sex ratio at birth
Volume 43 - Article 32    | Keywords: models, population aging, sex ratio at birth, stable population

Are sibling models a suitable tool in analyses of how reproductive factors affect child mortality?
Volume 42 - Article 28    | Keywords: bias, child mortality, reproductive factors, sibling models

Traditional versus Facebook-based surveys: Evaluation of biases in self-reported demographic and psychometric information
Volume 42 - Article 5    | Keywords: bias, demography, Facebook, moral foundations, personality, psychometrics, recruitment bias, self-reporting bias, self-selection bias, social media, survey

Download to Citation Manager

PubMed

Google Scholar

Volume
Page
Volume
Article ID