@article{Schoen_6_3,
author = {Schoen, Robert},
title={{On the Impact of Spatial Momentum}},
journal = {Demographic Research},
volume = {6},
number = {3},
pages = {49--66},
doi = {10.4054/DemRes.2002.6.3},
year = {2002},
abstract = {Momentum, the population growth that occurs after a fall in fertility to replacement level, has long been appreciated as a factor in the future population growth of many countries. This paper argues that another aspect of growing populations - their high proportion rural - is also a source of significant growth, and refers to the additional growth attributable to geographical redistribution as spatial momentum.

Using simplifying assumptions, a model for analyzing spatial momentum is developed based on population composition, rates of growth, and levels of interregional migration.  Calculations are then done using (i) hypothetical populations exhibiting a range of plausible demographic behavior, and (ii) the population of Mexico, 1970.  The results show that spatial momentum can have a substantial impact on ultimate population size under commonly encountered circumstances.},
URL = {https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol6/3/},
eprint = {https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol6/3/6-3.pdf}
}