TY  - JOUR
A1  - Schoen, Robert
T1  - On the Impact of Spatial Momentum
Y1  - 2002/01/29
JF  - Demographic Research
JO  - Demographic Research
SN  - 1435-9871
SP  - 49
EP  - 66
DO  - 10.4054/DemRes.2002.6.3
VL  - 6
IS  - 3
UR  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol6/3/
L1  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol6/3/6-3.pdf
L2  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol6/3/6-3.pdf
N2  - Momentum, the population growth that occurs after a fall in fertility to replacement level, has long been appreciated as a factor in the future population growth of many countries. This paper argues that another aspect of growing populations - their high proportion rural - is also a source of significant growth, and refers to the additional growth attributable to geographical redistribution as spatial momentum.

Using simplifying assumptions, a model for analyzing spatial momentum is developed based on population composition, rates of growth, and levels of interregional migration.  Calculations are then done using (i) hypothetical populations exhibiting a range of plausible demographic behavior, and (ii) the population of Mexico, 1970.  The results show that spatial momentum can have a substantial impact on ultimate population size under commonly encountered circumstances.

ER  -