TY  - JOUR
A1  - Keilman, Nico
A1  - Hetland, Arve
A1  - Pham, Dinh Quang
T1  - Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway
Y1  - 2002/05/28
JF  - Demographic Research
JO  - Demographic Research
SN  - 1435-9871
SP  - 409
EP  - 454
DO  - 10.4054/DemRes.2002.6.15
VL  - 6
IS  - 15
UR  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol6/15/
L1  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol6/15/6-15.pdf
L2  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol6/15/6-15.pdf
N2  - Deterministic population forecasts do not give an appropriate indication of forecast uncertainty. Forecasts should be probabilistic, rather than deterministic, so that their expected accuracy can be assessed.

We review three main methods to compute probabilistic forecasts, namely time series extrapolation, analysis of historical forecast errors, and expert judgement. We illustrate, by the case of Norway up to 2050, how elements of these three methods can be combined when computing prediction intervals for a population’s future size and age-sex composition. We show the relative importance for prediction intervals of various sources of variance, and compare our results with those of the official population forecast computed by Statistics Norway.

ER  -