TY  - JOUR
A1  - Booth, Heather
A1  - Hyndman, Rob
A1  - de Jong, Piet
A1  - Tickle, Leonie
T1  - Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions
Y1  - 2006/10/20
JF  - Demographic Research
JO  - Demographic Research
SN  - 1435-9871
SP  - 289
EP  - 310
DO  - 10.4054/DemRes.2006.15.9
VL  - 15
IS  - 9
UR  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol15/9/
L1  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol15/9/15-9.pdf
L2  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol15/9/15-9.pdf
N2  - We compare the short- to medium-term accuracy of five variants or extensions of the Lee-Carter method for mortality forecasting. These include the original Lee-Carter, the Lee-Miller and Booth-Maindonald-Smith variants, and the more flexible Hyndman-Ullah and De Jong-Tickle extensions. These methods are compared by applying them to sex-specific populations of 10 developed countries using data for 1986-2000 for evaluation. All variants and extensions are more accurate than the original Lee-Carter method for forecasting log death rates, by up to 61%. However, accuracy in log death rates does not necessarily translate into accuracy in life expectancy. There are no significant differences among the five methods in forecast accuracy for life expectancy.

ER  -