TY  - JOUR
A1  - Lachanski, Michael
T1  - Point estimation of certain measures in organizational demography using variable-r methods
Y1  - 2023/11/16
JF  - Demographic Research
JO  - Demographic Research
SN  - 1435-9871
SP  - 865
EP  - 904
DO  - 10.4054/DemRes.2023.49.33
VL  - 49
IS  - 33
UR  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol49/33/
L1  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol49/33/49-33.pdf
L2  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol49/33/49-33.pdf
L3  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol49/33/files/readme.49-33.txt
L3  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol49/33/files/demographic-research.49-33.zip
N2  - Background: The distribution of job tenure plays an important role in demography, economics, and sociology. Job tenure in a labor market is analogous to age in a population. Demographers have used indirect methods based on variable-r methods to estimate parameters for life table models. The variable-r method can also be employed to estimate the parameters of a job tenure table model that yields the expected length of job tenure and related measures. 

Methods: Only two retrospective surveys of current employee tenure lengths and a count of between-survey hires are required to estimate the parameters of a period tenure table using the variable-r method. Tenure-specific sources of decrement allow an analyst to estimate the parameters of multiple-decrement tenure tables and associated single-decrement tenure tables that isolate the proximate contribution of a specific decrement to the job separation process. I illustrate and evaluate the method using publicly available US data. 

Results: Variable-r methods generated reasonable parameter estimates: The expected job tenure was 2.48 years at 2002–2004 decrement rates. Multiple-decrement methods can estimate the fraction of employment relationships that end via job displacement. Cause-deleted tenure tables can capture the static effect of eliminating a particular risk to the population of employment relationships. 

Contribution: Arthur and Vaupel (1984) provide a framework for studying nonstable populations that subsume the variable-r relations that I utilize in this work. Vaupel had an interest in formal demography throughout his life but started his academic career in business statistics. This paper combines those interests. 

ER  -