@article{Alkema2007,
author = {Alkema, L. and Raftery, A.E. and Clark, S.J.},
title= {Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding},
year = {2007},
doi = {10.1214/07-AOAS111},
journal = {The Annals of Applied Statistics},
volume = {1},
number = {1},
pages = {229--248},
}