@article{Tuljapurkar1999,
author = {Tuljapurkar, S.},
title= {Validation, probability-weighted priors, and information in stochastic forecasts},
year = {1999},
doi = {10.1016/S0169-2070(98)00082-X},
journal = {International Journal of Forecasting},
volume = {15},
number = {3},
pages = {259--271},
}