Volume 21 - Article 11 | Pages 289–340
Sexual behaviour patterns in South Africa and their association with the spread of HIV: insights from a mathematical model
By Leigh Johnson, Rob Dorrington, Debbie Bradshaw, Victoria Pillay-Van Wyk, Thomas Rehle
References
Abdool Karim, Q.A., Abdool Karim, S.S., Soldan, K., and Zondi, M. (1995). Reducing the risk of HIV infection among South African sex workers: socioeconomic and gender barriers. American Journal of Public Health 85(11): 1521-1525.
Allen, C.F., Lees, S.S., Desmond, N.A., Der, G., Chiduo, B., Hambleton, I., Knight, L., Vallely, A., Ross, D.A., and Hayes, R.J. (2007). Validity of coital diaries in a feasibility study for the Microbicides Development Programme trial among women at high risk of HIV/AIDS in Mwanza, Tanzania. Sexually Transmitted Infections 83: 490-497.
Allen, S., Tice, J., Van de Perre, P., Serufilira, A., Hudes, E., Nsengumuremyi, F., Bogaerts, J., Lindan, C., and Hulley, S. (1992). Effect of serotesting with counselling on condom use and seroconversion among HIV discordant couples in Africa. British Medical Journal 304(6842): 1605-1609.
Auvert, B., Ballard, R., Campbell, C., Caraël, M., Carton, M., Fehler, G., Gouws, E., MacPhail, C., Taljaard, D., Van Dam, J., and Williams, B. (2001a). HIV infection in a South African mining town is associated with herpes simplex virus-2 seropositivity and sexual behaviour. AIDS 15: 885-898.
Auvert, B., Buanamico, G., Lagarde, E., and Williams, B. (2000). Sexual behaviour, heterosexual transmission, and the spread of HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa: a simulation study. Computers and Biomedical Research 33: 84-96.
Auvert, B., Buvé, A., Ferry, B., Caraël, M., Morison, L., Lagarde, E., Robinson, N. J., Kahindo, M., Chege, J., Rutenberg, N., Musonda, R., Laourou, M., and Akam, E. (2001b). Ecological and individual level analysis of risk factors for HIV infection in four urban populations in sub-Saharan Africa with different levels of HIV infection. AIDS 15(Supplement 4): 15-30.
Baeten, J.M., Richardson, B.A., Lavreys, L., Rakwar, J.P., Mandaliya, K., Bwayo, J.J., and Kreiss, J.K. (2005). Female-to-male infectivity of HIV-1 among circumcised and uncircumcised Kenyan men. Journal of Infectious Diseases 191(4): 546-553.
Bah, S. (1999). The improvement of marriages and divorces statistics in South Africa: Relevance, registration issues and challenges. Population Studies Centre, University of Western Ontario.
Bauch, C. and Rand, D.A. (2000). A moment closure model for sexually transmitted disease transmission through a concurrent partnership network. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B. 267(1456): 2019-2027.
Bertozzi, S.M., Laga, M., Bautista-Arredondo, S., and Coutinho, A. (2008). Making HIV prevention programmes work. Lancet 372(9641): 831-844.
Blair, J.M., Hanson, D.L., Jones, J.L., and Dworkin, M.S. (2004). Trends in pregnancy rates among women with human immunodeficiency virus. Obstetrics and Gynecology 103(4): 663-668.
Blanc, A.K. and Rutenberg, N. (1991). Coitus and contraception: the utility of data on sexual intercourse for family planning programs. Studies in Family Planning 22(3): 162-176.
Bongaarts, J. (1989). A model of the spread of HIV infection and the demographic impact of AIDS. Statistics in Medicine 8(1): 103-120.
Bongaarts, J. (2007). Late marriage and the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Population Studies 61(1): 73-83.
Bracher, M., Santow, G., and Watkins, S.C. (2004). Assessing the potential of condom use to prevent the spread of HIV: a microsimulation study. Studies in Family Planning 35(1): 48-64.
Brewer, D.D., Potterat, J.J., Muth, S.Q., Malone, P.Z., Montoya, P., Green, D.L., Rogers, H.L., and Cox, P.A. (2005). Randomized trial of supplementary interviewing techniques to enhance recall of sexual partners in contact interviews. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 32(3): 189-193.
Brewis, A. and Meyer, M. (2005). Marital coitus across the life course. Journal of Biosocial Science 37(4): 499-518.
Brown, M.S. (2000). Coitus, the proximate determinant of conception: inter-country variance in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Biosocial Science 32(2): 145-159.
Brown, T. and Peerapatanapokin, W. (2004). The Asian Epidemic Model: a process model for exploring HIV policy and programme alternatives in Asia. Sexually Transmitted Infections 80(Supplement 1): 19-24.
Brunham, R.C. and Plummer, F.A. (1990). A general model of sexually transmitted disease epidemiology and its implications for control. Medical Clinics of North America 74(6): 1339-1352.
Budlender, D., Chobokoane, N., and Simelane, S. (2004). Marriage patterns in South Africa: Methodological and substantive issues. Southern African Journal of Demography 9(1): 1-26.
Bunnell, R., Ekwaru, J.P., Solberg, P., Wamai, N., Bikaako-Kajura, W., Were, W., Coutinho, A., Liechty, C., Madraa, E., Rutherford, G., and Mermin, J. (2006). Changes in sexual behavior and risk of HIV transmission after antiretroviral therapy and prevention interventions in rural Uganda. AIDS 20(1): 85-92.
Caraël, M., Slaymaker, E., Lyerla, R., and Sarkar, S. (2006). Clients of sex workers in different regions of the world: hard to count. Sexually Transmitted Infections 82(Supplement 3): 26-33.
Carter, M.W., Kraft, J.M., Koppenhaver, T., Galavotti, C., Roels, T.H., Kilmarx, P.H., and Fidzani, B. (2007). "A Bull Cannot be Contained in a Single Kraal": Concurrent Sexual Partnerships in Botswana. AIDS and Behavior 11(6): 822-830.
Clark, S. (2004). Early marriage and HIV risks in sub-Saharan Africa. Studies in Family Planning 35(3): 149-160.
Connolly, C., Shisana, O., Colvin, M., and Stoker, D. (2004). Epidemiology of HIV in South Africa - results of a national, community-based survey. South African Medical Journal 94(9): 776-781.
Curtis, S.L. and Sutherland, E.G. (2004). Measuring sexual behaviour in the era of HIV/AIDS: the experience of Demographic and Health Surveys and similar enquiries. Sexually Transmitted Infections 80(Supplement 2): 22-7.
de Walque, D. (2007). Sero-discordant couples in five African countries: implications for prevention strategies. Population and Development Review 33(3): 501-523.
Department of Health (2006). National HIV and Syphilis Prevalence Survey, South Africa 2005. Pretoria: Directorate of Epidemiology and Surveillance.
Department of Health (1999). South Africa Demographic and Health Survey 1998: Full Report.
Department of Health (2004). South Africa Demographic and Health Survey 2003: Preliminary Report. Pretoria.
Des Jarlais, D.C., Paone, D., Milliken, J., Turner, C.F., Miller, H., Gribble, J., Shi, Q., Hagan, H., and Friedman, S.R. (1999). Audio-computer interviewing to measure risk behaviour for HIV among injecting drug users: a quasi-randomised trial. Lancet 353(9165): 1657-1661.
Dorrington, R.E., Johnson, L.F., Bradshaw, D., and Daniel, T. (2006). The Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa. National and Provincial Indicators for 2006. Cape Town: Centre for Actuarial Research, South African Medical Research Council and Actuarial Society of South Africa.
Downs, A. and De Vincenzi, I. (1996). Probability of heterosexual transmission of HIV: relationship to the number of unprotected sexual contacts. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 11: 388-395.
Doyle, P.R. and Millar, D.B. (1990). A general description of an actuarial model applicable to the HIV epidemic in South Africa. Transactions of the Actuarial Society of South Africa 8: 561-593.
Dunkle, K.L., Jewkes, R.K., Brown, H.C., Gray, G.E., McIntryre, J.A., and Harlow, S.D. (2004). Transactional sex among women in Soweto, South Africa: prevalence, risk factors and association with HIV infection. Social Science and Medicine 59(8): 1581-1592.
Dunkle, K.L., Stephenson, R., Karita, E., Chomba, E., Kayitenkore, K., Vwalika, C., Greenberg, L., and Allen, S. (2008). New heterosexually transmitted HIV infections in married or cohabiting couples in urban Zambia and Rwanda: an analysis of survey and clinical data. Lancet 371(9631): 2183-2191.
Eames, K.T. and Keeling, M.J. (2004). Monogamous networks and the spread of sexually transmitted diseases. Mathematical Biosciences 189(2): 115-130.
Eaton, L., Flisher, A., and Aarø, L. (2003). Unsafe sexual behaviour in South African youth. Social Science and Medicine 56: 149-165.
Ferguson, N.M. and Garnett, G.P. (2000). More realistic models of sexually transmitted disease transmission dynamics: sexual partnership networks, pair models, and moment closure. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 27(10): 600-609.
Ferry, B., Caraël, M., Buvé, A., Auvert, B., Laourou, M., Kanhonou, L., de Loenzien, M., Akam, E., Chege, J., and Kaona, F. (2001). Comparison of key parameters of sexual behaviour in four African urban populations with different levels of HIV infection. AIDS 15(Supplement 4): 41-50.
Garenne, M. (2004). Age at marriage and modernisation in sub-Saharan Africa. Southern African Journal of Demography 9(2): 59-79.
Garnett, G. and Anderson, R. (1996). Sexually transmitted diseases and sexual behaviour: insights from mathematical models. Journal of Infectious Diseases 174(Supplement 2): 150-160.
Garnett, G.P. and Anderson, R.M. (1995). Strategies for limiting the spread of HIV in developing countries: conclusions based on studies of the transmission dynamics of the virus. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 9(5): 500-513.
Garnett, G.P., Hughes, J.P., Anderson, R.M., Stoner, B.P., Aral, S.O., Whittington, W.L., Handsfield, H.H., and Holmes, K.K. (1996). Sexual mixing patterns of patients attending sexually transmitted diseases clinics. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 23(3): 248-257.
Gear, S. (2005). Rules of engagement: Structuring sex and damage in men's prisons and beyond. Culture, Health and Sexuality 7(3): 195-208.
Gelman, A., Carlin, J., Stern, H., and Rubin, D. (2004). Bayesian Data Analysis. Boca Raton, Florida: Chapman & Hall/CRC.
Ghanem, K.G., Hutton, H.E., Zenilman, J.M., Zimba, R., and Erbelding, E.J. (2005). Audio computer assisted self interview and face to face interview modes in assessing response bias among STD clinic patients. Sexually Transmitted Infections 81(5): 421-425.
Ghani, A.C. and Aral, S.O. (2005). Patterns of sex worker-client contacts and their implications for the persistence of sexually transmitted infections. Journal of Infectious Diseases 191(Supplement 1): 34-41.
Ghani, A.C., Donnelly, C.A., and Garnett, G.P. (1998). Sampling biases and missing data in explorations of sexual partner networks for the spread of sexually transmitted diseases. Statistics in Medicine 17(18): 2079-2097.
Gouws, E., White, P.J., Stover, J., and Brown, T. (2006). Short term estimates of adult HIV incidence by mode of transmission: Kenya and Thailand as examples. Sexually Transmitted Infections 82(Supplement 3): 51-55.
Granath, F., Giesecke, J., Scalia-Tomba, G., Ramstedt, K., and Forssman, L. (1991). Estimation of a preference matrix for women's choice of male sexual partner according to rate of partner change, using partner notification data. Mathematical Biosciences 107(2): 341-348.
Gray, R., Wawer, M., Brookmeyer, R., Sewankambo, N., Serwadda, D., Wabwire-Mangen, F., Lutalo, T., Li, X., van Cott, T., and Quinn, T. (2001). Probability of HIV-1 transmission per coital act in monogamous, heterosexual, HIV-1-discordant couples in Rakai, Uganda. Lancet 357: 1149-1153.
Greenblatt, R.M., Bacchetti, P., Barkan, S., Augenbraun, M., Silver, S., Delapenha, R., Garcia, P., Mathur, U., Miotti, P., and Burns, D. (1999). Lower genital tract infections among HIV-infected and high-risk uninfected women: findings of the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS). Sexually Transmitted Diseases 26(3): 143-151.
Gregson, S., Mushati, P., White, P. J., Mlilo, M., Mundandi, C., and Nyamukapa, C. (2004). Informal confidential voting interview methods and temporal changes in reported sexual risk behaviour for HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. Sexually Transmitted Infections 80(Supplement 2): 36-42.
Gregson, S., Zhuwau, T., Ndlovu, J., and Nyamukapa, C. A. (2002). Methods to reduce social desirability bias in sex surveys in low-development settings: experience in Zimbabwe. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 29(10): 568-575.
Groeneveld, H. and Padayachee, N. (1992). A stochastic model for medium-term estimation of the prevalence of HIV infection in a South African heterosexual population. South African Medical Journal 81(2): 67-70.
Hallett, T.B., Aberle-Grasse, J., Bello, G., Boulos, L.M., Cayemittes, M.P., Cheluget, B., Chipeta, J., Dorrington, R., Dube, S., Ekra, A.K., Garcia-Calleja, J.M., Garnett, G.P., Greby, S., Gregson, S., Grove, J.T., Hader, S., Hanson, J., Hladik, W., Ismail, S., Kassim, S., Kirungi, W., Kouassi, L., Mahomva, A., Marum, L., Maurice, C., Nolan, M., Rehle, T., Stover, J., and Walker, N. (2006). Declines in HIV prevalence can be associated with changing sexual behaviour in Uganda, urban Kenya, Zimbabwe, and urban Haiti. Sexually Transmitted Infections 82(Supplement 1): 1-8.
Hallett, T.B., Gregson, S., Lewis, J.J., Lopman, B.A., and Garnett, G.P. (2007). Behaviour change in generalised HIV epidemics: impact of reducing cross-generational sex and delaying age at sexual debut. Sexually Transmitted Infections 83(Supplement 1): 50-54.
Hallman, K. (2004). Socioeconomic Disadvantage and Unsafe Sexual Behaviors among Young Women and Men in South Africa. New York: Population Council, Policy Research Division.
Halperin, D.T. and Epstein, H. (2004). Concurrent sexual partnerships help to explain Africa's high HIV prevalence: implications for prevention. Lancet 364(9428): 4-6.
Hankins, C., Tran, T., and Lapointe, N. (1998). Sexual behaviour and pregnancy outcome in HIV-infected women. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 18: 479-487.
Hansen, H.O. (2000). An AIDS model with reproduction - with an application based on data from Uganda. Mathematical Population Studies 8(2): 175-203.
Hargreaves, J.R., Bonell, C.P., Morison, L.A., Kim, J.C., Phetla, G., Porter, J.D., Watts, C., and Pronyk, P.M. (2007). Explaining continued high HIV prevalence in South Africa: socioeconomic factors, HIV incidence and sexual behaviour change among a rural cohort, 2001-2004. AIDS 21(Supplement 7): 39-48.
Hayes, R.J., Schulz, K.F., and Plummer, F.A. (1995). The cofactor effect of genital ulcers on the per-exposure risk of HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 98: 1-8.
Helleringer, S. and Kohler, H.P. (2007). Sexual network structure and the spread of HIV in Africa: evidence from Likoma Island, Malawi. AIDS 21(17): 2323-2332.
Hewett, P.C., Mensch, B.S., and Erulkar, A.S. (2004). Consistency in the reporting of sexual behaviour by adolescent girls in Kenya: a comparison of interviewing methods. Sexually Transmitted Infections 80(Supplement 2): 43-48.
Høgsborg, M. and Aaby, P. (1992). Sexual relations, use of condoms and perceptions of AIDS in an urban area of Guinea-Bissau with a high prevalence of HIV-2. In: Dyson, T. (ed.). Sexual Behaviour and Networking: Anthropological and Socio-cultural Studies on the Transmission of HIV. Liège, Belgium: Derouaux.
Hornsby, P.P. and Wilcox, A.J. (1989). Validity of questionnaire information on frequency of coitus. American Journal of Epidemiology 130(1): 94-99.
Human Sciences Research Council (2002). South African national HIV prevalence, behavioural risks and mass media household survey 2002.
Jewkes, R., Vundule, C., Maforah, F., and Jordaan, E. (2001). Relationship dynamics and teenage pregnancy in South Africa. Social Science and Medicine 52(5): 733-744.
Jewkes, R.K., Nduna, M., Jama, P.N., Dunkle, K. L., and Levin, J.B. (eds.) (2002). Steadys, roll-ons and hit and runs: using indigenous typology to measure number of sexual partners [Abstract TuPpE2069]. Barcelona, Spain (14th International AIDS Conference).
Jochelson, K., Mothibeli, M., and Leger, J. P. (1991). Human immunodeficiency virus and migrant labor in South Africa. International Journal of Health Services 21(1): 157-173.
John, A.M. (1991). A model of HIV-1 transmission for urban areas of Africa. Theoretical Population Biology 39(2): 148-169.
Johnson, L.F. (2008). The interaction between HIV and other sexually transmitted infections in South Africa: a model-based evaluation. [Doctoral thesis]. Cape Town: University of Cape Town, Department of Actuarial Science.
Johnson, L.F. and Dorrington, R.E. (2006). Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions. Demographic Research 14: 541-574.
Johnson, L.F., Dorrington, R.E., and Matthews, A.P. (2007). An investigation into the extent of uncertainty surrounding estimates of the impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa. South African Journal of Science 103: 135-140.
Kaplan, E.H. (1990). Modeling HIV infectivity: Must sex acts be counted? Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 3: 55-61.
Katz, I. and Low-Beer, D. (2008). Why has HIV stabilized in South Africa, yet not declined further? Age and sexual behavior patterns among youth. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 35(10): 837-842.
Kelly, K. (2000). Communicating for action: A contextual evaluation of youth responses to HIV/AIDS. Department of Health.
Kim, J.C., Martin, L.J., and Denny, L. (2003). Rape and HIV post-exposure prophylaxis: addressing the dual epidemics in South Africa. Reproductive Health Matters 11(22): 101-112.
Kissinger, P., Rice, J., Farley, T., Trim, S., Jewitt, K., Margavio, V., and Martin, D.H. (1999). Application of computer-assisted interviews to sexual behavior research. American Journal of Epidemiology 149(10): 950-954.
Korenromp, E.L., Van Vliet, C., Bakker, R., de Vlas, S.J., and Habbema, J.D.F. (2000). HIV spread and partnership reduction for different patterns of sexual behaviour - a study with the microsimulation model STDSIM. Mathematical Population Studies 8(2): 135-173.
Küstner, H., Swanevelder, J., and van Middelkoop, A. (1994). National HIV surveillance - South Africa, 1990 - 1992. South African Medical Journal 84: 195-199.
Lagarde, E., Enel, C., and Pison, G. (1995). Reliability of reports of sexual behavior: a study of married couples in rural west Africa. American Journal of Epidemiology 141(12): 1194-1200.
Lau, J.T., Tsui, H.Y., and Wang, Q.S. (2003). Effects of two telephone survey methods on the level of reported risk behaviours. Sexually Transmitted Infections 79(4): 325-331.
Laumann, E.O., Gagnon, J.H., Michael, R.T., and Michaels, S. (1994). The Social Organization of Sexuality: Sexual Practices in the United States. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Leclerc, P.M. and Garenne, M. (2007). Inconsistencies in age profiles of HIV prevalence: A dynamic model applied to Zambia. Demographic Research 16: 121-140.
Leclerc, P.M., Matthews, A.P., and Garenne, M.L. (2009). Fitting the HIV epidemic in Zambia: a two-sex micro-simulation model. PLoS One 4(5): 5439.
Leigh, B.C., Gillmore, M.R., and Morrison, D.M. (1998). Comparison of diary and retrospective measures for recording alcohol consumption and sexual activity. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 51(2): 119-127.
Lurie, M.N. and Rosenthal, S. (2009). Concurrent partnerships as a driver of the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa? The evidence is limited. AIDS and Behavior [In press].
Lurie, M.N., Williams, B.G., Zuma, K., Mkaya-Mwamburi, D., Garnett, G.P., Sweat, M.D., Gittelsohn, J., and Abdool Karim, S.S. (2003). Who infects whom? HIV-1 concordance and discordance among migrant and non-migrant couples in South Africa. AIDS 17(15): 2245-2252.
Mahiane, G., Legeai, C., Latouche, A., Taljaard, D., Puren, A., Peillon, A., Bretagnolle, J., Ndong Nguema, P., Gassiat, E., and Auvert, B. (eds.) (2008). Transmission probabilities of HIV and HSV-2 and interaction between these viruses: a longitudinal study in a township of South Africa. Mexico City, Mexico (XVII International AIDS Conference).
Manhart, L.E., Aral, S.O., Holmes, K.K., and Foxman, B. (2002). Sex partner concurrency: measurement, prevalence, and correlates among urban 18-39-year-olds. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 29(3): 133-143.
Mastro, T.D., Satten, G.A., Nopkesorn, T., Sangkharomya, S., and Longini, I.M. (1994). Probability of female-to-male transmission of HIV-1 in Thailand. Lancet 343(8891): 204-207.
McAuliffe, T.L., DiFranceisco, W., and Reed, B.R. (2007). Effects of question format and collection mode on the accuracy of retrospective surveys of health risk behavior: a comparison with daily sexual activity diaries. Health Psychology 26(1): 60-67.
McClelland, R.S., Hassan, W.M., Lavreys, L., Richardson, B.A., Mandaliya, K., Ndinya-Achola, J., Jaoko, W., Kurth, A.E., and Baeten, J.M. (2006). HIV-1 acquisition and disease progression are associated with decreased high-risk sexual behaviour among Kenyan female sex workers. AIDS 20(15): 1969-1973.
Meekers, D. and Van Rossem, R. (2005). Explaining inconsistencies between data on condom use and condom sales. BMC Health Services Research 5(1): 5.
Mensch, B.S., Hewett, P.C., and Erulkar, A.S. (2003). Reporting of sensitive behavior by adolescents: a methodological experiment in Kenya. Demography 40(2): 247-268.
Merli, M.G., Hertog, S., Wang, B., and Li, J. (2006). Modelling the spread of HIV/AIDS in China: The role of sexual transmission. Population Studies 60(1): 1-22.
Moatti, J.P., Prudhomme, J., Traore, D.C., Juillet-Amari, A., Akribi, H.A., and Msellati, P. (2003). Access to antiretroviral treatment and sexual behaviours of HIV-infected patients aware of their serostatus in Cote d'Ivoire. AIDS 17(Supplement 3): 69-77.
Moodie, T.D. and Ndatshe, V. (1994). Going for Gold: Men, Mines and Migration. Johannesburg: Witwatersrand University Press.
Morison, L., Weiss, H.A., Buvé, A., Caraël, M., Abega, S.-C., Kaona, F., Kanhonou, L., Chege, J., and Hayes, R.J. (2001). Commercial sex and the spread of HIV in four cities in sub-Saharan Africa. AIDS 15(Supplement 4): 61-69.
Morris, M. and Kretzschmar, M. (1997). Concurrent partnerships and the spread of HIV. AIDS 11(5): 641-648.
Mpofu, E., Flisher, A.J., Bility, K., Onya, H., and Lombard, C. (2006). Sexual partners in a rural South African setting. AIDS and Behavior 10(4): 399-404.
Myer, L. (2005). Barrier methods. In: Abdool Karim, S.S. and Abdool Karim, Q. (eds.). HIV/AIDS in South Africa. Cape Town: Cambridge University Press.
Nnko, S., Boerma, J.T., Urassa, M., Mwaluko, G., and Zaba, B. (2004). Secretive females or swaggering males? An assessment of the quality of sexual partnership reporting in rural Tanzania. Social Science and Medicine 59(2): 299-310.
Orubuloye, I.O., Caldwell, J.C., and Caldwell, P. (1992). Sexual networking and the risk of AIDS in Southwest Nigeria. In: Dyson, T. (ed.). Sexual Behaviour and Networking: Anthropological and Socio-cultural Studies on the Transmission of HIV. Liège, Belgium: Derouaux.
Oster, E. (2005). Sexually transmitted infections, sexual behavior, and the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Quarterly Journal of Economics 120(2): 467-515.
Padian, N.S., Shiboski, S.C., and Jewell, N.P. (1990). The effect of number of exposures on the risk of heterosexual HIV transmission. Journal of Infectious Diseases 161(5): 883-887.
Parker, W., Makhubele, B., Ntlabati, P., and Connolly, C. (2007). Concurrent sexual partnerships amongst young adults in South Africa: Challenges for HIV prevention communication. Centre for AIDS Development, Research and Evaluation.
Peltzer, K., Seoka, P., and Raphala, S. (2004). Characteristics of female sex workers and their HIV/AIDS/STI knowledge, attitudes and behaviour in semi-urban areas in South Africa. Curationis March 2004: 4-11.
Pettifor, A.E., Hudgens, M.G., Levandowski, B.A., Rees, H.V., and Cohen, M.S. (2007). Highly efficient HIV transmission to young women in South Africa. AIDS 21(7): 861-865.
Pettifor, A.E., Measham, D.M., Rees, H.V., and Padian, N.S. (2004). Sexual power and HIV risk, South Africa. Emerging Infectious Diseases 10(11): 1996-2004.
Pettifor, A.E., van der Straten, A., Dunbar, M.S., Shiboski, S.C., and Padian, N.S. (2004). Early age of first sex: a risk factor for HIV infection among women in Zimbabwe. AIDS 18(10): 1435-1442.
Piot, P., Bartos, M., Larson, H., Zewdie, D., and Mane, P. (2008). Coming to terms with complexity: a call to action for HIV prevention. Lancet 372(9641): 845-859.
Porter, L., Hao, L., Bishai, D., Serwadda, D., Wawer, M.J., Lutalo, T., and Gray, R. (2004). HIV status and union dissolution in sub-Saharan Africa: the case of Rakai, Uganda. Demography 41(3): 465-482.
Ramjee, G., Weber, A.E., and Morar, N.S. (1999). Recording sexual behavior: comparison of recall questionnaires with a coital diary. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 26(7): 374-380.
Ramjee, G., Williams, B., Gouws, E., Van Dyck, E., De Deken, B., and Karim, S.A. (2005). The impact of incident and prevalent herpes simplex virus-2 infection on the incidence of HIV-1 infection among commercial sex workers in South Africa. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 39(3): 333-339.
Rees, H., Beksinska, M.E., Dickson-Tetteh, K., Ballard, R.C., and Htun, Y. (2000). Commercial sex workers in Johannesburg: risk behaviour and HIV status. South African Journal of Science 96: 283-284.
Rehle, T., Lazzari, S., Dallabetta, G., and Asamoah-Odei, E. (2004). Second-generation HIV surveillance: better data for decision-making. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 82(2): 121-127.
Rehle, T.M., Saidel, T.J., Hassig, S.E., Bouey, P.D., Gaillard, E.M., and Sokal, D.C. (1998). AVERT: a user-friendly model to estimate the impact of HIV/sexually transmitted disease prevention interventions on HIV transmission. AIDS 12(Supplement 2): 27-35.
Reproductive Health Research Unit (2004). HIV and sexual behaviour among young South Africans: a national survey of 15-24 year olds. Joint publication of Reproductive Health Research Unit and loveLife.
Rogers, S.M., Willis, G., Al-Tayyib, A., Villarroel, M.A., Turner, C.F., Ganapathi, L., Zenilman, J., and Jadack, R. (2005). Audio computer assisted interviewing to measure HIV risk behaviours in a clinic population. Sexually Transmitted Infections 81(6): 501-507.
Ross, A., Van der Paal, L., Lubega, R., Mayanja, B.N., Shafer, L.A., and Whitworth, J. (2004). HIV-1 disease progression and fertility: the incidence of recognized pregnancy and pregnancy outcome in Uganda. AIDS 18: 799-804.
Schall, R. (1990). On the maximum size of the AIDS epidemic among the heterosexual black population in South Africa. South African Medical Journal 78(9): 507-510.
Schoen, R. (1988). Practical uses of multistate population models. Annual Review of Sociology 14: 341-361.
Schoub, B.D., Smith, A.N., Lyons, S.F., Johnson, S., Martin, D.J., McGillivray, G., Padayachee, G.N., Naidoo, S., Fisher, E.L., and Hurwitz, H.S. (1988). Epidemiological considerations of the present status and future growth of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome epidemic in South Africa. South African Medical Journal 74(4): 153-157.
Sevcikova, H., Raftery, A.E., and Waddell, P.A. (2006). Assessing uncertainty in urban simulations using Bayesian melding. Seattle: Centre for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington.
Shisana, O., Rehle, T., Simbayi, L.C., Parker, W., Zuma, K., Bhana, A., Connolly, C., Jooste, S., and Pillay, V. (2005). South African National HIV Prevalence, HIV Incidence, Behaviours and Communication Survey, 2005. Cape Town: HSRC Press.
Shisana, O., Zungu-Dirwayi, N., Toefy, Y., Simbayi, L.C., Malik, S., and Zuma, K. (2004). Marital status and risk of HIV infection in South Africa. South African Medical Journal 94(7): 537-543.
Statistics South Africa (2006). Marriages and divorces, 2004. Pretoria.
Stigum, H., Falck, W., and Magnus, P. (1994). The core group revisited: the effect of partner mixing and migration on the spread of gonorrhea, chlamydia, and HIV. Mathematical Biosciences 120(1): 1-23.
Tawfik, L. and Watkins, S.C. (2007). Sex in Geneva, sex in Lilongwe, and sex in Balaka. Social Science and Medicine 64(5): 1090-1101.
Terceira, N., Gregson, S., Zaba, B., and Mason, P.R. (2003). The contribution of HIV to fertility decline in rural Zimbabwe, 1985-2000. Population Studies 57(2): 149-164.
Turner, C.F., Ku, L., Rogers, S.M., Lindberg, L.D., Pleck, J.H., and Sonenstein, F.L. (1998). Adolescent sexual behavior, drug use, and violence: increased reporting with computer survey technology. Science 280(5365): 867-873.
Twa-Twa, J., Nakanaabi, I., and Sekimpi, D. (1997). Underlying factors in female sexual partner instability in Kampala. Health Transition Review 7(Supplement): 83-8.
UNAIDS/WHO (2000). Guidelines for Second Generation HIV Surveillance.
Van der Ploeg, C.P.B., Van Vliet, C., De Vlas, S., Ndinya-Achola, J.O., Fransen, L., Van Oortmarssen, G.J., and Habbema, J.D.F. (1998). STDSIM: a microsimulation model for decision support in STD control. Interfaces 28: 84-100.
van Tonder, J.L. (1985). Fertility survey 1982: Data concerning the Black population of South Africa. Pretoria: Human Sciences Research Council.
van Vliet, C., Meester, E.I., Korenromp, E.L., Singer, B., Bakker, R., and Habbema, J.D. (2001). Focusing strategies of condom use against HIV in different behavioural settings: an evaluation based on a simulation model. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 79(5): 442-454.
Varga, C.A. (1997b). Sexual decision-making and negotiation in the midst of AIDS: youth in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Health Transition Review 7(Supplement 3): 45-67.
Varga, C.A. (1997a). The condom conundrum: barriers to condom use among commercial sex workers in Durban, South Africa. African Journal of Reproductive Health 1(1): 74-88.
Watts, C.H. and May, R.M. (1992). The influence of concurrent partnerships on the dynamics of HIV/AIDS. Mathematical Biosciences 108(1): 89-104.
Weller, S. and Davis, K. (2004). Condom effectiveness in reducing heterosexual HIV transmission (Cochrane Review). In: The Cochrane Library. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons.
Wellings, K., Collumbien, M., Slaymaker, E., Singh, S., Hodges, Z., Patel, D., and Bajos, N. (2006). Sexual behaviour in context: a global perspective. Lancet 368(9548): 1706-1728.
Williams, B., Gilgen, D., Campbell, C., Taljaard, D., and MacPhail, C. (2000). The natural history of HIV / AIDS in South Africa: A biomedical and social survey in Carletonville. Johannesburg: Council for Scientific and Industrial Research.
Wojcicki, J.M. and Malala, J. (2001). Condom use, power and HIV/AIDS risk: sex-workers bargain for survival in Hillbrow/Joubert Park/Berea, Johannesburg. Social Science and Medicine 53(1): 99-121.
Zuma, K., Gouws, E., Williams, B., and Lurie, M. (2003). Risk factors for HIV infection among women in Carletonville, South Africa: migration, demography and sexually transmitted diseases. International Journal of STD and AIDS 14(12): 814-817.