Volume 28 - Article 39 | Pages 1145–1166  

Very long range global population scenarios to 2300 and the implications of sustained low fertility

By Stuart Gietel-Basten, Wolfgang Lutz, Sergei Scherbov

References

Abrahamson, P., Boje, T.P., and Greve, B. (2005). Welfare and families in Europe. Aldershot: Ashgate.

Download reference:

Basten, S. (2013). Comparing projections assumptions of fertility in advanced Asian economies; or ‘thinking beyond the medium variant’. Asian Population Studies (forthcoming).

Download reference:

Basten, S., Coleman, D., and Gu, B. (2012). Re-examining the fertility assumptions in the UN’s 2010 World Population Prospects: Intentions and fertility recovery in East Asia? Paper presented at the Population Association of America Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA, May 5 2012.

Download reference:

Basten, S. and Kumara, M. (2011). The development of one-child norms in Asia; or, thinking beyond 1.85. Paper presented at the Workshop on childbearing and evolutionary theory, St. John’s College, Oxford, UK, April 14 2011.

Download reference:

Boling, P. (2008). Demography, culture, and policy: Understanding Japan’s low fertility. Population and Development Review 34(2): 307-326.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Bongaarts, J. (2008). Fertility transitions in developing countries: Progress or stagnation? Studies in Family Planning 39(2): 105-110.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Bongaarts, J. and Sinding, S. (2011). Population policy in transition in the developing world. Science 333(6042): 574-576.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Branigan, T. (2009). Shanghai encourages second child for eligible couples.

Download reference:

Cohen, J.E. (2008). Make secondary education universal. Nature 456: 572-573.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Dasgupta, P. (1993). An inquiry into well-being and destitution. Oxford: Clarendon Press.

Download reference:

Eurostat (2012). Statistics database [electronic resource]. Brussels: Eurostat.

Ezeh, A.C., Mberu, B.U., and Emina, J.O. (2009). Stall in fertility decline in Eastern African countries: Regional analysis of patterns, determinants and implications. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 364(1532): 2991-3007.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Frejka, T. (2008a). Overview chapter 2: Parity distribution and completed family size in Europe. Incipient decline of the two-child family model. Demographic Research 19(4): 47-72.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Frejka, T. (2008b). Overview chapter 3: Birth regulation in Europe: Completing the contraceptive revolution. Demographic Research 19(5): 73-84.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Frejka, T. and Sobotka, T. (2008). Overview Chapter 1: Fertility in Europe: Diverse, delayed and below replacement. Demographic Research 19(3): 15-46.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Frejka, T., Sobotka, T., Hoem, J.M., and Toulemon, L. (2008). Summary and general conclusions: Childbearing trends and policies in Europe. Demographic Research 19(2): 5-14.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Goldstein, J.R., Sobotka, T., and Jasilioniene, A. (2009). The end of “lowest-low” fertility? Population and Development Review 35(4): 663-699.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Gu, B. (2009). The arrival of low fertility in China. In: Jones, G., Straughan, P.T., and Chan, A. (eds.). Ultra-Low Fertility in Pacific Asia: Trends, Causes and Policy Issues. Abingdon, UK: Routledge: 73-95.

Download reference:

Hermalin, A.I. and Liu, X. (1990). Gauging the validity of responses to questions on family size preferences in China. Population and Development Review 16(2): 337-354.

Weblink:
Download reference:

HKCSD (2012). Hong Kong Population Projections 2012-2041. Hong Kong: Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department.

Download reference:

Hou, Y. and Ma, X. (2008). Studies of the desired bearing of one child in urban Beijing (in Chinese). Social Science of Beijing 9: 27-31.

Download reference:

Hou, Y., Ma, X., and Huang, K. (2008). Research on the fertility desire and behavior of Beijing urban women from only-child families (in Chinese). Population and Development (China) 14: 47-54.

Download reference:

ICF International (2012). MEASURE DHS STATcompiler [electronic resource]. Fairfax, VA: ICF International.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Jejeebhoy, S.J. (1996). Women's education, autonomy, and reproductive behaviour: Experience from developing countries. New York: Oxford University Press.

Download reference:

King, M. (1990). Health is a sustainable state. The Lancet 336(8716): 664-667.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Kohler, H.-P, Billari, F.C., and Ortega, J.A. (2002). The emergence of lowest-low fertility in Europe during the 1990s. Population and Development Review 28(4): 641-680.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Lutz, W. (2009). Sola schola et sanitate: Human capital as the root cause and priority for international development? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 364(1532): 3031-3047.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Lutz, W., Basten, S., and Striessnig, E. (2012). Optimal fertility. In: Kaufman, E. and Wilcox, B. (eds.). Whither the Child? Causes and Consequences of Low Fertility. Boulder, CO: Paradigm Press: 205-233.

Download reference:

Lutz, W., Goujon, A., and Doblhammer-Reiter, G. (1998). Demographic dimensions in forecasting: Adding education to age and sex. Population and Development Review 24(Supplement: Frontiers of Population Forecasting): 42-58.

Download reference:

Lutz, W., Sanderson, W., and Scherbov, S. (2008). The coming acceleration of global population ageing. Nature 451: 716-719.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Lutz, W., Sanderson, W., and Scherbov, S. (2004). The end of world population growth. In: Lutz, W., Sanderson, W., and Scherbov, S. (eds.). The end of world population growth in the 21st century: New challenges for human capital formation and sustainable development. London: Earthscan: 17-62.

Download reference:

Lutz, W., Skirbekk, V., and Testa, M.R. (2006). The Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis: Forces that may lead to further postponement and fewer births in Europe. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2006: 167-192.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Morgan, S.P. and Rackin, H. (2010). The correspondence between fertility intentions and behavior in the United States. Population and Development Review 36(1): 91-118.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Nakicenovic, N. and Swart, R. (eds.) (2000). Special Report on Emissions Scenarios : A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Download reference:

National Bureau of Statistics of China (2011). Communiqué of the National Bureau of Statistics of People's Republic of China on Major Figures of the 2010 Population Census (No. 2) [electronic resource]. Beijing: NBS.

Scherbov, S. and Grechucha, V. (1988). "DIAL" - A System for Modeling Multidimensional Demographic Processes. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA Working Paper WP-88-36).

SMPFPC (2009a). 2008 Houshold population, age, fertility and early education (in Chinese) [electronic resource]. Shanghai: Shanghai Municipal Population and Family Planning Commission.

SMPFPC (2009c). Born in Shanghai in 2009: The population forecast and analysis of the results of the survey release (in Chinese). Shanghai: Shanghai Municipal Population and Family Planning Commission.

Download reference:

SMPFPC (2008). Briefing on SMPFPC Fertility Survey 2008 (in Chinese). Shanghai: Shanghai Municipal Population and Family Planning Commission.

Download reference:

SMPFPC (2009b). The registered population of Shanghai, total fertility rates (in Chinese) [electronic resource]. Shanghai: Shanghai Municipal Population and Family Planning Commission.

Sobotka, T. (2004). Is lowest-low fertility in Europe explained by the postponement of childbearing? Population and Development Review 30(2): 195-220.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Sobotka, T., Skirbekk, V., and Philipov, D. (2011). Economic recession and fertility in the developed world. Population and Development Review 37(2): 267-306.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Straughan, P., Chan, A., and Jones, G. (2008). Ultra-low fertility in Pacific Asia: Trends, causes and policy issues. Abingdon, UK: Routledge.

Download reference:

Testa, M.R. (2012). Family sizes in Europe: Evidence from the 2011 Eurobarometer Survey. Vienna: Vienna Institute of Demography (VID European Demographic Research Papers; 2012:2).

UNFPA (2011). Impact of demographic change in Thailand. Bangkok: United Nations Population Fund.

Download reference:

UNPD (2011a). Assumptions underlying the 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations Population Division.

UNPD (2003). World Population Prospects: The 2002 revision highlights. New York: United Nations Population Division (ESA/P/WP. 180).

UNPD (2011b). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations Population Division.

Weblink:
Download reference:

UNPD (2004). World population to 2300. New York: United Nations Population Division (ST/ESA/SER.A/236).

Download reference:

Wattenberg, B.J. (2005). Fewer: How the new demography of depopulation will shape our future. New York: Ivan R. Dee Publishers.

Download reference:

Wen, Y., Yin, Q., Shuai, Y., and Wen, Y. (2005). Analysis of birth preference of young generation in Nanjing (in Chinese). Northwest Population Journal 2: 10-13.

Download reference:

Wen, Y. and Zong, Z.-H. (2006). Birth preference of people at birth age in Changzhou city and its causes (in Chinese). Journal of Nanjing College for Population Programme Management 22: 40-43.

Download reference:

Zheng, Z., Cai, Y., Feng, W., and Gu, B. (2009). Below-replacement fertility and childbearing intention in Jiangsu Province. China Asian Population Studies 5(3): 329-347.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Back to the article