Volume 41 - Article 13 | Pages 367–392
Subnational population forecasts: Do users want to know about uncertainty?
References
ABS (2018). Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) [electronic resource]. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Alders, M., Keilman, N., and Cruijsen, H. (2007). Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries. European Journal of Population 23(1): 33–69.
Bell, M., Wilson, T., and Charles-Edwards, E. (2011). Australia’s population future: probabilistic forecasts incorporating expert judgement. Geographical Research 49(3): 261–275.
Bijak, J., Alberts, I., Alho, J., Bryant, J., Buettner, T., Falkingham, J., Forster, J.J., Gerland, P., King, T., Onorante, L., Keilman, N., O’Hagan, A., Owens, D., Raftery, A., Ševčíková, H., and Smith, P.F. (2015). Letter to the editor. Journal of Official Statistics 31(4): 537–544.
Billari, F.C., Graziani, R., and Melilli, E. (2012). Stochastic population forecasts based on conditional expert opinions. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society 175(2): 491–511.
Bongaarts, J. and Bulatao, R.A. (1999). Completing the demographic transition. Population and Development Review 25(3): 515–529.
Dunstan, K. and Ball, C. (2016). Demographic projections: User and producer experiences of adopting a stochastic approach. Journal of Official Statistics 32(4): 947–962.
Guimarães, R.R. (2014). Uncertainty in population projections: The state of the art. Revista Brasileira de Estudos de População 31(2): 277–290.
Johnstone, K. (2015). Communicating population projections to stakeholders: A case study from New South Wales. In: Wilson, T., Charles-Edwards, E., and Bell, M. (eds.). Demography for planning and policy: Australian case studies. Cham: Springer: 71–89.
Josyln, S. and Savelli, S. (2010). Communicating forecast uncertainty: Public perception of weather forecast uncertainty. Meteorological Applications 17(2): 180–195.
Keilman, N. (2018). Probabilistic demographic forecasts. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 16: 25–35.
Keilman, N. (2008). Using deterministic and probabilistic population forecasts. In: Østreng, W. (ed.). Complexity: Interdisciplinary communications 2006/2007. Oslo: Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters: 22–28.
Keilman, N., Pham, D.Q., and Hetland, A. (2002). Why population forecasts should be probabilistic: Illustrated by the case of Norway. Demographic Research 6(15): 409–454.
Keyfitz, N. (1981). The limits of population forecasting. Population and Development Review 7(4): 579–593.
Lee, R. (1999). Probabilistic approaches to population forecasting. In: Lutz, W., Vaupel, J.W., and Ahlburg, D.A. (eds.). Frontiers of population forecasting. New York: Population Council: 156–190.
Lee, R., Miller, T., and Edwards, R.D. (2003). The growth and aging of California’s population: Demographic and fiscal projections, characteristics and service needs. Berkeley: Center for the Economics and Demography of Aging.
Lutz, W., Sanderson, W.C., and Scherbov, S. (1998). Expert-based probabilistic population projections. Population and Development Review 24(Supplement: Frontiers of Population Forecasting): 139–155.
Morss, R.E., Demuth, J.L., and Lazo, J.K. (2008). Communicating uncertainty in weather forecasts: A survey of the US public. Weather and Forecasting 23: 974–991.
Raftery, A.E., Li, N., Ševčíková, H., Gerland, P., and Heilig, G.K. (2012). Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109(35): 13915–13921.
Rayer, S. (2008). Population forecast errors: A primer for planners. Journal of Planning Education and Research 27(4): 417–430.
Rayer, S. and Smith, S.K. (2010). Factors affecting the accuracy of subcounty population forecasts. Journal of Planning Education and Research 30(2): 147–161.
Rayer, S. and Smith, S.K. (2014). Population projections by age for Florida and its counties: Assessing accuracy and the impact of adjustments. Population Research and Policy Review 33(5): 747–770.
Rayer, S., Smith, S.K., and Tayman, J. (2009). Empirical prediction intervals for county population forecasts. Population Research and Policy Review 28: 773–793.
Rees, P. and Turton, I. (1998). Investigation of the effects of input uncertainty on population forecasting. Paper presented at the GeoComputation 98 Conference, Bristol, UK, September 17–19, 1998.
Ševčíková, H. and Raftery, A.E. (2012). bayesPop: Probabilistic population projection R package: Version 1.0–3 [electronic resource]. Vienna: R Foundation for Statistical Computing.
Simpson, L., Wilson, T., and Shalley, F. (2018). The shelf life of sub-national population forecasts, from Australia to England. Darwin: Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University (Working Paper 03/2018).
Statistics Netherlands (2017). Forecast: 18.4 million inhabitants in 2060 [electronic resource]. The Hague: Statistics Netherlands.
Statistics New Zealand (2008). How accurate are population projections? An evaluation of Statistics New Zealand population projections, 1991–2006. Wellington: Statistics New Zealand.
Statistics New Zealand (2016). National population projections: 2016(base)–2068. Wellington: Statistics New Zealand.
Stoto, M.A. (1983). The accuracy of population projections. Journal of the American Statistical Association 78(381): 13–20.
Tayman, J. (2011). Assessing uncertainty in small area forecasts: State of the practice and implementation strategy. Population Research and Policy Review 30(5): 781–800.
United National Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) (2018). Recommendations on communicating population projections. Geneva: UNECE.
Wilson, T. (2018). Communicating population forecast uncertainty using perishable food terminology. Darwin: Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University (Research Brief RB03/2018).
Wilson, T. (2012). Forecast accuracy and uncertainty of Australian Bureau of Statistics state and territory population projections. International Journal of Population Research 2012(419824): 1–16.
Wilson, T. (2013). Quantifying the uncertainty of regional demographic forecasts. Applied Geography 42: 108–115.
Wilson, T., Brokensha, H., Rowe, F., and Simpson, L. (2018). Insights from the evaluation of past local area population forecasts. Population Research and Policy Review 37(1): 137–155.
Wisniowski, A. and Raymer, J. (2016). Bayesian multiregional population forecasting: England. Paper presented at the Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections, Geneva, Switzerland, April 18–20, 2016.
World Meteorological Organization (2008). Guidelines on communicating forecast uncertainty. Geneva: WMO.
Yamauchi, M., Koike, S., and Kamata, K. (2017). How accurate are Japan’s official subnational projections? Comparative analysis of projections in Japan, English-speaking countries and the EU. In: Swanson, D.A. (ed.). The frontiers of applied demography. Dordrecht: Springer: 305–328.