Demographic Research

Daughter preference in Japan: A reflection of gender role attitudes? (by Kana Fuse)

2013-05-17T00:00:00Z

BACKGROUND
Unlike other East Asian nations where preference for sons over daughters still prevails, gender preference for children in Japan has progressively shifted from son preference to a noticeable daughter preference over the past few decades. This emergence of daughter preference is surprising given that gender relations are more traditional in Japan than in other advanced countries.

OBJECTIVE
I focus on the extent to which individuals’ gender preferences are shaped by their gender role attitudes and evaluate whether daughter preference is a reflection of convergence or a persistent divergence in gender roles in Japan.

METHODS
I use data from the Single Persons subset of the 11th Japanese National Fertility Survey conducted by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research in 1997. Using multinomial logistic regression, I estimate the relationship between Japanese singles’ gender role attitudes and their type of gender preference for children.

RESULTS
Findings suggest that the effect of gender role attitudes on one’s child gender preference differs for men and women. Overall, while daughter preference is associated with nontraditional gender role attitudes for men, daughter preference is associated with traditional attitudes for women.

CONCLUSIONS
Traditionalism is still driving gender preference, though in a different way for men and women. Emerging daughter preference may not simply be a reflection of improvements in women’s status, but in fact it is likely that persistent divergence in gender roles remain in Japan.

A dynamic birth-death model via Intrinsic Linkage (by Robert Schoen)

2013-05-16T00:00:00Z

BACKGROUND
Dynamic population models, or models with changing vital rates, are only beginning to receive serious attention from mathematical demographers. Despite considerable progress, there is still no general analytical solution for the size or composition of a population generated by an arbitrary sequence of vital rates.

OBJECTIVE
The paper introduces a new approach, Intrinsic Linkage, that in many cases can analytically determine the birth trajectory of a dynamic birth-death population.

METHODS
Intrinsic Linkage assumes a weighted linear relationship between (i) the time trajectory of proportional increases in births in a population and (ii) the trajectory of the intrinsic rates of growth of the projection matrices that move the population forward in time. Flexibility is provided through choice of the weighting parameter, w, that links these two trajectories.

RESULTS
New relationships are found linking implied intrinsic and observed population patterns of growth. Past experience is "forgotten" through a process of simple exponential decay. When the intrinsic growth rate trajectory follows a polynomial, exponential, or cyclical pattern, the population birth trajectory can be expressed analytically in closed form. Numerical illustrations provide population values and relationships in metastable and cyclically stable models. Plausible projection matrices are typically found for a broad range of values of w, although w appears to vary greatly over time in actual populations.

CONCLUSIONS
The Intrinsic Linkage approach extends current techniques for dynamic modeling, revealing new relationships between population structures and the changing vital rates that generate them.

Societal foundations for explaining fertility: Gender equity (by Peter McDonald)

2013-05-15T00:00:00Z

BACKGROUND
Gender equity theory in relation to fertility argues that very low fertility is the result of incoherence in the levels of gender equity in individually-oriented social institutions and family-oriented social institutions. The salience of gender to the fertility transition is strong in theory but not as strong in specification of testable hypotheses as has been pointed out in the literature.

OBJECTIVE
The paper aims to clarify the specification of gender equity theory through a discussion of the difference between equity and equality and to suggest methods that might be applied to test the theory.

METHODS
The theory is restated and further developed using literature from different disciplines. The method is described using a decomposition of fertility for women by human capital levels.

RESULTS
The clarification of the theory includes a reminder that the theory relates to differences in fertility between countries and not to differences in fertility between women in the same country. In comparisons between countries, higher gender equity leads to higher fertility. In comparisons of fertility across women in the same country, higher gender equity does not necessarily imply higher fertility. In relation to measurement, a specification is suggested that effectively compares women across countries controlling for their level of human capital. Simple graphics are used to indicate ways in which fertility between countries may vary.

CONCLUSIONS
The paper concludes that it is likely the gender equity theory can be tested more readily by examining the behaviour across countries of women with higher levels of human capital.

The more you learn the less you know? Interpretive ambiguity across three modes of qualitative data (by Nicole Angotti, Amy Kaler)

2013-05-14T00:00:00Z

BACKGROUND
Researchers across disciplines face a similar challenge ensuring our methods can give us valid, usable answers to our questions. But what happens when multiple strategies of inquiry give us different answers to the same research question? We explore this issue through three different modes of qualitative inquiry - interviews, focus groups, and participant observation - oriented around local attitudes to HIV testing.

OBJECTIVE
We introduce the notion of "research awareness" - the extent to which participants are continuously reminded that they are taking part in a research project, which is a function of the mode of research itself. We hypothesize that as participants’ research-awareness decreases across modes, from interviews to focus groups to participant observation, the proportion of statements that conform to officially sanctioned normative discourse about HIV/AIDS will decrease and the proportion expressing non-normative or counter-normative ideas will increase.

METHODS
We tabulated positive and negative references to three themes - knowing one’s HIV status, counseling messages, and antiretroviral treatment - across the three qualitative modes.

RESULTS
The distribution is non-uniform, with favorable responses to testing themes predominating in interviews, mixed responses in the focus groups, and negative responses predominating in the observational data. At least a third of references to testing across all three modes, however, do not support officially sanctioned normative discourse.

CONCLUSIONS
Researchers who use mixed methods approaches for triangulation should consider the influence of research-awareness on their methods. These situational specifics are crucial for understanding the applicability of research to real life. Substantively, our study revealed a robust level of ambivalence about HIV testing despite normative discourses supporting it at local and global levels.

Components and possible determinants of decrease in Russian mortality in 2004-2010 (by Vladimir M. Shkolnikov, Evgeny M. Andreev, Martin McKee, David A. Leon)

2013-04-24T00:00:00Z

BACKGROUND
After a long decline, life expectancy in Russia substantially increased in 2004-2010; this is the longest period of health improvement that has been observed in the country since 1965. This study is the first analysis of this positive trend.

OBJECTIVE
We seek to determine the causes and age groups that account for the additional years of life gained in 2004-10 and the remaining gap between Russia and Western countries, to assess to what extent these recent trends represent a new development relative to previous mortality fluctuations, and to identify possible explanations for the improvement.

METHODS
We present an analysis of trends in life expectancy, and in age- and cause-specific mortality in Russia and selected countries in Eastern and Western Europe. We use decomposition techniques to examine the life expectancy rise in 2004-2010 and the Russia-UK life expectancy gap in 2010.

RESULTS
Like the previous mortality fluctuations that have occurred in Russia since the mid-1980s, the increase in life expectancy was driven by deaths at ages 15 to 60 from alcohol-related causes. Uniquely in the recent period, there were also improvements at older ages, especially in cerebrovascular disease mortality among women. In addition, there were reductions in deaths from avoidable causes, such as from tuberculosis and diabetes. The life expectancy gap between Russia and Western countries remains large, and is mostly attributable to deaths from cardiovascular disease, alcohol-related conditions, and violence.

CONCLUSIONS
The decrease in alcohol-related mortality may be attributable to measures taken in 2006 to control the production and sale of ethanol. The lower number of cerebrovascular-related deaths may reflect advancements in blood pressure control. The reduction in the number of deaths from tuberculosis and diabetes may be associated with a general improvement in health care. Although the decline in mortality since 2004 has been substantial, the question of whether it can be sustained remains open.

Does his paycheck also matter?: The socioeconomic resources of co-residential partners and entry into parenthood in Finland (by Marika Jalovaara, Anneli Miettinen)

2013-04-19T00:00:00Z

BACKGROUND
Previous research on fertility has focused on women, and less attention has been paid to men and couples.

OBJECTIVE
The aim of this study is to examine how the socioeconomic resources of cohabiting and married partners affect entry into parenthood in a relatively gender-egalitarian welfare society.

METHODS
The study is based on Finnish register data and uses event-history analysis to predict first births from both partners’ socioeconomic characteristics.

RESULTS
The results show that each partner being employed (as opposed to studying) and having a higher income seems to encourage entry into parenthood. As compared to employed couples, either partner being currently unemployed or having recent spells of unemployment had very weak effects, whereas either partner being economically inactive seems to discourage childbearing. Although the resources of male partners also have an effect, the female partner’s situation appears to be equally or even more influential. The effects of female partners’ characteristics are almost as great when male characteristics are controlled as when they are not, and women’s and men’s characteristics do not interact with each other. Moreover, with regard to income and educational attainment beyond age 30, for example, the woman’s resources have a stronger positive effect than the resources of the male partner.

CONCLUSIONS
Together with several previous studies from the Nordic countries, this study lends support to the idea that the influence of women’s and men’s economic resources on family formation are perhaps much more symmetrical than conventional theories suggest.

COMMENTS
The significance of women's own resources, net of the male partner’s resources, suggests that previous studies have not overestimated their positive impact.

When the group encourages extramarital sex: Difficulties in HIV/AIDS prevention in rural Malawi (by Julia Cordero Coma)

2013-04-17T00:00:00Z

BACKGROUND
Recent research on the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa has highlighted the relevance of married individuals‘ extramarital sexual behavior for the spread of the disease. At the same time, there is social disapproval of sexual infidelity.

OBJECTIVE
This article examines the extent to which Malawian married men‘s likelihood of having extramarital sex is influenced by their expectations about the prevalence of extramarital relationships in their social network. It also explores whether this effect depends on the network density, and whether it is also observed when the extramarital behavior of a particularly influential actor is controlled for.

METHODS
Data from the last two waves, 2004 and 2006, of the longitudinal survey provided by the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project are analyzed both cross-sectionally and through a panel analysis with fixed effects. The longitudinal approach enables the researcher to deal with the potential non-random distribution of social interactions among respondents, which bias the estimation in the cross-sectional analysis.

RESULTS
Married men‘s expectations about the prevalence of extramarital sexual relationships in the network were shown to have a substantial influence on their extramarital behavior, and the impact was found to be bigger in dense networks. In addition, there was some evidence that the perceived dominant behavior in the peer group is relevant, independent of the extramarital behavior of the respondents‘ best friends.

Characteristics of joint physical custody families in Flanders (by An Katrien Sodermans, Koen Matthijs, Gray Swicegood)

2013-04-16T00:00:00Z

BACKGROUND
Research conducted in the 1990s showed that children who live alternately with their mother and father after divorce (joint physical custody) have closer relationships with both parents and better emotional outcomes. In 1995 and 2006, joint legal custody and joint physical custody became the default judicial recommendations in Belgium. These defaults served to increase the incidence of joint custody arrangements. However, parents with joint physical custody arrangements who divorced before 2006 may have had higher socio-economic standing and lower conflict relationships than couples that divorced afterwards. Thus earlier research on the impact of joint physical custody arrangements on child outcomes may be too optimistic when considering children of recently divorced parents.

OBJECTIVE
This study examines the characteristics of four different physical custody arrangements (sole mother, sole father, joint physical, and flexible custody) in Flanders, Belgium, and whether these characteristics have changed over time. The legal changes in 1995 and 2006 are used to distinguish three divorce cohorts.

METHODS
We use data on 2,207 couples that legally divorced between 1971 and 2010 from the Divorce in Flanders project, a large-scale representative multi-actor survey. Multinomial logistic regression models provide estimates of the likelihoods of different physical custody arrangements.

RESULTS
The incidence of sole mother custody has decreased over the last decades and children increasingly alternate between the households of the mother and the father after divorce. The incidence of sole father custody has remained low. Higher educated parents are more likely to have joint physical custody arrangements than parents from lower social classes. Also, within couples, relative educational levels are important because the higher educated spouse is more likely to have physical custody of the child. We also find that the associations between socio-demographic variables and custody outcomes have changed over time. Prior to the legal changes low-conflict couples were overrepresented in joint physical custody arrangements, but this pattern has now disappeared.

CONCLUSIONS
Flanders has clearly followed the road towards more gender-neutral parenting. Hand in hand with changing legislation, joint physical custody has become more prevalent, and the socio-demographic profile of joint-custody families has become more heterogeneous. The increased likelihood that higher-conflict couples enter joint physical custody arrangements may have important consequences for the children involved.

Maternal age at first birth and adolescent education in Brazil (by Leticia Marteleto, Molly Dondero)

2013-04-10T00:00:00Z

BACKGROUND
Brazil has witnessed dramatic changes in its fertility patterns in recent decades. The decline to below-replacement fertility has been accompanied by increases in the proportion of children born to young mothers. Yet we know little about the well-being of children born to young mothers in Brazil.

OBJECTIVE
Using data from the 2006 Pesquisa Nacional de Demografia e Saúde and a quasi-natural experimental approach, this study examines the implications of maternal age at first birth for the education of Brazilian adolescents.

RESULTS
We find that being born to a young mother is associated with educational disadvantages in adolescence, but that these disadvantages are attenuated once we account for mothers’ selection into early childbearing. We also find that, in southern Brazil, adolescents born to young mothers have poorer educational outcomes compared with their peers born to older mothers, but that in northern Brazil no such disparities exist.

CONCLUSIONS
Adolescent educational disadvantages associated with being born to a young mother are not an artifact of selectivity, at least in southern Brazil. Regional variation in the effect of maternal age at first birth on adolescent education suggests the important role of the extended family and the father’s presence as mechanisms through which disadvantages operate.

The power of the interviewer: A qualitative perspective on African survey data collection (by Sara Randall, Ernestina Coast, Natacha Compaore, Philippe Antoine)

2013-04-09T00:00:00Z

BACKGROUND
African censuses and surveys remain dependent on interviewers for data collection. Data quality is assured through training and supervision. Many survey concepts are difficult to translate into African languages and some, such as "household", may have multiple criteria which are not fulfilled by everyone, leading interviewers to prioritise different criteria. Some questions introduce unfamiliar ideas which require considerable negotiation by interviewers to obtain acceptable answers.

OBJECTIVE
To identify key stages in the data collection process and domains where interviewer judgement and interviewer-respondent social dynamics play a substantial role in determining who is included in household surveys, and in shaping responses to questions.

METHODS
We analyse published definitions, enumerator manuals and qualitative interview data with households, interviewers, supervisors, trainers, survey organisers and analysts along the chain of data production and use in Tanzania, Uganda, Senegal and Burkina Faso.

RESULTS
Despite comprehensive training manuals and definitions, interviewers influence who is included in, and excluded from surveys. Interviewer versatility needs to include both persuasive social skills and an ability to follow precise wording. In Africa, where survey concepts are often different from local concepts and where interviewers are socio-economically distant from respondents, these persuasive social skills are required throughout the interview process with unknown impact on the data produced. Language diversity is a major barrier to harmonisation.

CONCLUSIONS
To improve survey data validity more effort should be made to understand the influence of interviewers on data in low-income settings.

COMMENTS
This submission covers important issues for demographers undertaking secondary analysis of African surveys, especially those without fieldwork experience.

Working life gain from gain in old age life expectancy in India (by Preeti Dhillon, Laishram Ladusingh)

2013-04-05T00:00:00Z

BACKGROUND
It is important to evaluate the interaction between increasing life expectancy and changing age patterns in work participation from the perspective of planning for the greying population of India.

OBJECTIVE
This study attempts to answer the question, "Does longevity translate into longer work participation, and further, what are the prospects of old age dependency?"

METHODS
We project work participation rates (WPR) using two rounds of National Sample Survey data and adopting a cohort approach up to the year 2050, then integrate these projected WPRs with projected life tables to obtain working life tables, so as to assess the average years of working life.

RESULTS
We find a decline in WPR from 56.2 to 54.3 per cent among elderly males and an increase from 22.2 to 29.6 per cent among elderly females, during the period 2010-50. Projected working life expectancy (WLE) shows significant gain for both males and females; however, remaining working life as a percentage of remaining life will decrease for males but will increase for females. The old age dependency ratio (ODR) is significantly higher for females than for males. Adjusted ODR (AODR) will increase from 11.4 to 26.3 per cent in the same period. However, there is a 10 per cent shift from female to male contribution in ODR by 2030.

CONCLUSIONS
Longevity is not translating into longer economic activity for males. For females, longer life expectancy does prolong economic activity. In urban areas, longevity improvements support a longer working life, but the same is not true for rural areas. Moreover, adjusted ODR is higher for females in urbanized states of India.