Konstantin Arbeev
Svetlana Ukraintseva
Lyubov S. Arbeeva
Anatoli Yashin

http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol12/10/

doi:10.4054/DemRes.2005.12.10

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Abstract
The overall cancer incidence rate declines at old ages. Possible causes of this decline include the effects of cross-sectional data which transform cohort dynamics into age pattern, population heterogeneity which selects out individuals susceptible to cancer, decline in some carcinogenic exposures in the old, effects of individual aging which slow down major physiological processes in an organism, etc. We discuss several mathematical models contributing to the explanation of this phenomenon. We extend the Strehler and Mildvan model of aging and mortality and apply it to the analysis of data on cancer incidence at old ages. The model explains time trends and age patterns of cancer incidence rates. Applications to cancer incidence data provided by the International Agency for Research on Cancer illustrate the models.

Author's affiliation
Konstantin Arbeev
Duke University, United States of America
Svetlana Ukraintseva
Duke University, United States of America
Lyubov S. Arbeeva
Ulyanovsk State University, Russian Federation
Anatoli Yashin
Duke University, United States of America

Keywords
age/aging, cancer, heterogeneity, incidence rate, model, models

Word count (Main text)
5042

Other articles by the same author/authors (in Demographic Research)

	[14-3] Two proofs of a recent formula by Griffith Feeney
	[12-11] Decline in Human Cancer Incidence Rates at Old Ages: Age-Period-Cohort Considerations
	[9-8] Individual Aging and Cancer Risk: How are They Related?

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