Volume 12 - Article 9 | Pages 197-236

World Urbanization Prospects: an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with the mobility transition theory

By Philippe Bocquier

Print this page  Send this article to a friend  Twitter

 

 
Date received:01 Oct 2004
Date published:04 May 2005
Word count:8623
Keywords:developed countries, developing countries, environment, model, poverty, projections, urban transition, urbanization
DOI:10.4054/DemRes.2005.12.9
Additional files:Projections (Excel file, 422 kB)
 

Abstract

This paper proposes to critically examine the United Nations projections on urbanisation. Both the estimates of current trends based on national data and the method of projection are evaluated. The theory of mobility transition is used as an alternative hypothesis. Projections are proposed using a polynomial model and compared to the UN projections, which are based on a linear model. The conclusion is that UN projections may overestimate the urban population for the year 2030 by almost one billion, or 19% in relative term. The overestimation would be particularly more pronounced for developing countries and may exceed 30% in Africa, India and Oceania.

Author's Affiliation

Philippe Bocquier - Université catholique de Louvain, Belgium [Email]

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

» Circular migration patterns and determinants in Nairobi slum settlements
Volume 23 - Article 20

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

» Youth prospects in a time of economic recession
Volume 29 - Article 36    | Keywords: poverty

» Putting on the moves: Individual, household, and community-level determinants of residential mobility in Canada
Volume 29 - Article 28    | Keywords: urbanization

» Very long range global population scenarios to 2300 and the implications of sustained low fertility
Volume 28 - Article 39    | Keywords: projections

» Working life gain from gain in old age life expectancy in India
Volume 28 - Article 26    | Keywords: projections

» Natural resources and rural livelihoods: Differences between migrants and non-migrants in Madagascar
Volume 26 - Article 24    | Keywords: environment

Articles

»Volume 12

 

Citations

 

Similar Articles

 

 

Jump to Article

Volume Page
Volume Article ID