Dmitri A. Jdanov
Rembrandt D. Scholz
Vladimir Shkolnikov

http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol13/14/

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Abstract
A systematic comparison of the Human Mortality Database and official estimates of populations aged 80+ is presented. We consider statistical series for East and West Germany and also for Denmark, England and Wales, France, Finland, Hungary, the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, and Switzerland. The Human Mortality Database (HMD, www.mortality.org) methodology relies on the methods of extinct and almost extinct generations. HMD estimates are precise if the quality of death data is high and the migration among the elderly is negligible. The comparisons between the HMD and the official populations are not fully appropriate for the 1990s since the HMD calculations are related to official population estimates. A significant overestimation of the male population aged 80+ and especially 90+ between the censuses of 1970 and 1987 was found in West Germany. The relative surplus of men aged 90+ increased from 5 to 20 percent, which expressed in absolute numbers indicates an increase from 2 to 10 thousand. In 1971-1987 the official death rates have fallen dramatically to implausibly low values. In 1987-88 death rates based on the official populations suddenly jumped to the HMD death rates due to the census re-estimation. In the 1990s an accelerated decrease in male death rates has resumed. Among other countries, the relative and absolute deviations from the HMD estimates were especially high in Russia, Hungary, and England and Wales. Regression analysis reveals common factors of the relative deviation from the HMD populations. The deviation tends to decrease with time, increase with age, be higher during inter-census periods than in census years, and to decrease after the introduction of population registers.

Author's affiliation
Dmitri A. Jdanov
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Germany
Rembrandt D. Scholz
Rostocker Zentrum zur Erforschung des Demografischen Wandels, Germany
Vladimir Shkolnikov
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Germany

Keywords
age/aging, elderly, population estimates, quality of statistics, statistics

Word count (Main text)
6814

Other Articles by the same author/authors (in Demographic Research)

	[17-4] Differential mortality by lifetime earnings in Germany
	[13-16] Estimates of mortality and population changes in England and Wales over the two World Wars
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	[10-1] Educational differentials in male mortality in Russia and northern Europe: A comparison of an epidemiological cohort from Moscow and St. Petersburg with the male populations of Helsinki and Oslo
	[8-11] Gini coefficient as a life table function: Computation from discrete data, decomposition of differences and empirical examples
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	[S2-1] Introduction to the Special Collection of papers on "Determinants of diverging trends in mortality"
	[S2-4] Russian mortality beyond vital statistics: Effects of social status and behaviours on deaths from circulatory disease and external causes - a case-control study of men aged 20-55 years in Urdmurtia, 1998-99
	[S2-6] Progress in health care, progress in health?: Patterns of amenable mortality in Central and Eastern Europe before and after political transition

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