Volume 14 - Article 22 | Pages 541-574

Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions

By Leigh F. Johnson, Rob Dorrington

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Date received:05 Sep 2005
Date published:30 Jun 2006
Word count:8156
Keywords:antiretroviral treatment, demographic impact, HIV/AIDS prevention, simulation model, South Africa
DOI:10.4054/DemRes.2006.14.22
 

Abstract

This paper describes an approach to incorporating the impact of HIV/AIDS and the effects of HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment programmes into a cohort component projection model of the South African population. The modelled HIV-positive population is divided into clinical and treatment stages, and it is demonstrated that the age profile and morbidity profile of the HIV-positive population is changing significantly over time.
HIV/AIDS is projected to have a substantial demographic impact in South Africa. Prevention programmes - social marketing, voluntary counselling and testing, prevention of mother-to-child transmission and improved treatment for sexually transmitted diseases - are unlikely to reduce AIDS mortality significantly in the short term. However, more immediate reductions in mortality can be achieved when antiretroviral treatment is introduced.

Author's Affiliation

Leigh F. Johnson - University of Cape Town, South Africa [Email]
Rob Dorrington - University of Cape Town, South Africa [Email]

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» Sources of error and bias in methods of fertility estimation contingent on the P/F ratio in a time of declining fertility and rising mortality
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