Volume 16 - Article 5 | Pages 121-140

Inconsistencies in age profiles of HIV prevalence: A dynamic model applied to Zambia

By Pauline M. Leclerc, Michel Garenne

Print this page  Send this article to a friend  Twitter

 

 
Date received:18 Apr 2006
Date published:27 Feb 2007
Word count:4039
Keywords:AIDS/HIV, dynamics of epidemics, heterosexual transmission, mathematical model, Sub-Saharan Africa, Zambia
DOI:10.4054/DemRes.2007.16.5
 

Abstract

A two-sex compartmental model of the dynamics of HIV infection was developed and applied to the case of Zambia. Parameters include age specific rates of fertility, mortality, entry into sexual life, number of partners and age of partners. They were all derived from empirical data from Demographic and Health Surveys, and applied by single year of age. The model was unable to fit age and sex patterns of infection observed in 2001. Current knowledge of HIV transmission does not allow fitting the dynamics of HIV epidemics. Further research is needed to understand the dynamics of HIV heterosexual epidemics in Africa.

Author's Affiliation

Pauline M. Leclerc - Université Paris 6, France [Email]
Michel Garenne - Institut Pasteur, France [Email]

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

» When the group encourages extramarital sex: Difficulties in HIV/AIDS prevention in rural Malawi
Volume 28 - Article 30    | Keywords: AIDS/HIV, Sub-Saharan Africa

» An inquiry into the uneven distribution of women’s HIV infection in rural Malawi
Volume 25 - Article 28    | Keywords: AIDS/HIV, Sub-Saharan Africa

» Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi
Volume 20 - Article 31    | Keywords: AIDS/HIV, Sub-Saharan Africa

» The Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project 2004-06: Data collection, data quality, and analysis of attrition
Volume 20 - Article 21    | Keywords: AIDS/HIV, Sub-Saharan Africa

» Overestimating HIV infection: The construction and accuracy of subjective probabilities of HIV infection in rural Malawi
Volume 20 - Article 6    | Keywords: AIDS/HIV, Sub-Saharan Africa