Volume 18 - Article 14 | Pages 409-436

Constant global population with demographic heterogeneity

By Joel E. Cohen

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Date received:06 Dec 2007
Date published:27 May 2008
Word count:6107
Keywords:average age, Cauchy-Schwarz inequality, constant population, heterogeneity, life expectancy, migration, pensions, population projection, stationary population, zero population growth
DOI:10.4054/DemRes.2008.18.14
 

Abstract

To understand better a possible future constant global population that is demographically heterogeneous, this paper analyzes several models. Classical theory of stationary populations generally fails to apply. However, if constant global population size P(global) is the sum of all country population sizes, and if constant global annual number of births B(global) is the sum of the annual number of births of all countries, and if constant global life expectancy at birth e(global) is the population-weighted mean of the life expectancy at birth of all countries, then B(global) x e(global) always exceeds P(global) unless all countries have the same life expectancy at birth.

Author's Affiliation

Joel E. Cohen - Rockefeller University, United States of America [Email]

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