On the background of the dramatic swings in the Swedish TFR since the mid-1980s we present a first attempt at assessing the impact of labor-market trends on the timing of the first birth based on individual-level register data covering all Swedish women born in 1950 or later. Among our covariates we have each woman’s income, partitioned into any income earned from work, any unemployment benefits, and any public support for educational activities. We also have employment trends in her home municipality. The latter variables are included for every relevant year.
We find that first-birth rates rose and fell in step with municipal employment levels. The effect is especially strong for young women, and the decline in first birth during the 1990s was concentrated primarily among women aged below 30. First-birth rates increased with a woman’s earned income. Unemployed women did not have particularly low first-birth rates, but students did.