Volume 20 - Article 31 | Pages 817–875  

Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi

By Adeline Delavande, Hans-Peter Kohler

Abstract

In this paper we present a newly-developed interactive elicitation methodology to collect probabilistic expectations in a developing country context with low levels of literacy and numeracy, and we evaluate the feasibility and success of this method for a wide range of outcomes in rural Malawi. We find that respondent's answers about subjective expectations respect basic properties of probabilities, and vary meaningfully with observable characteristics and past experience. From a substantive point of view, the elicited expectations indicate that individuals are generally aware of differential risks. For example, individuals with less income and less land feel rightly at more risk of financial distress than people with higher SES, or people who are divorced or widow feel rightly at more risk of being infected with HIV than currently married individuals. While many expectations---including also the probability of being currently infected with HIV---are well-calibrated compared to actual probabilities, mortality expectations are substantially over-estimated compared to lifetable estimates. This overestimation may lead individuals to underestimate the benefits of adopting HIV risk-reduction strategies. The skewed distribution of expectations about condom use also suggests that a small group of innovators are the forerunners in the adoption of condoms within marriage for HIV prevention.

Author's Affiliation

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Marital dissolutions and changes in mental health: Evidence from rural Malawi
Volume 44 - Article 41

The population-level impact of public-sector antiretroviral therapy rollout on adult mortality in rural Malawi
Volume 36 - Article 37

Intergenerational Transfers in the Era of HIV/AIDS: Evidence from Rural Malawi
Volume 27 - Article 27

The Likoma Network Study: Context, data collection and initial results
Volume 21 - Article 15

The Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project 2004-06: Data collection, data quality, and analysis of attrition
Volume 20 - Article 21

Overestimating HIV infection:: The construction and accuracy of subjective probabilities of HIV infection in rural Malawi
Volume 20 - Article 6

A summary of Special Collection 1: Social Interactions and HIV/AIDS in Rural Africa
Volume 9 - Article 12

The Fertility Pattern of Twins and the General Population Compared: Evidence from Danish Cohorts 1945-64
Volume 6 - Article 14

Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures:: Assessing the Implications of Delayed Childbearing for Cohort Fertility in Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain
Volume 6 - Article 7

Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility
Volume 6 - Article 6

Attrition in Longitudinal Household Survey Data: Some Tests for Three Developing-Country Samples
Volume 5 - Article 4

Frailty Modelling for Adult and Old Age Mortality: The Application of a Modified DeMoivre Hazard Function to Sex Differentials in Mortality
Volume 3 - Article 8

Empirical Assessments of Social Networks, Fertility and Family Planning Programs: Nonlinearities and their Implications
Volume 3 - Article 7

Gender Preferences for Children in Europe: Empirical Results from 17 FFS Countries
Volume 2 - Article 1

Talking about AIDS: The influence of communication networks on individual risk perceptions of HIV/AIDS infection and favored protective behaviors in South Nyanza District, Kenya
Special Collection 1 - Article 13

Introduction to "Research on Demographic Aspects of HIV/AIDS in Rural Africa"
Special Collection 1 - Article 1

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

The dynamic role of household structure on under-5 mortality in southern and eastern sub-Saharan Africa
Volume 49 - Article 11    | Keywords: child mortality, Health and Demographic Surveillance System, household structure, sub-Saharan Africa

Comparative evidence of years lived with reproductive-age morbidity in sub-Saharan Africa (2010‒2019)
Volume 49 - Article 6    | Keywords: life expectancy, maternal morbidities, reproductive age, sub-Saharan Africa

Women's economic empowerment in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from cross-national population data
Volume 47 - Article 15    | Keywords: agency, Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), economic growth, education, employment, sub-Saharan Africa, women's economic independence

A probabilistic model for analyzing summary birth history data
Volume 47 - Article 11    | Keywords: Bayesian hierarchical model, Brass method, Malawi, spatial smoothing, temporal smoothing

“One hand does not bring up a child:” Child fostering among single mothers in Nairobi slums
Volume 46 - Article 30    | Keywords: child fostering, informal settlements, Kenya, kinship, single motherhood, sub-Saharan Africa