Leigh Johnson
Rob Dorrington
Debbie Bradshaw
Victoria Pillay-Van Wyk
Thomas Rehle

http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol21/11/

doi:10.4054/DemRes.2009.21.11

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Abstract

This paper aims to quantify the effects of different types of sexual risk behaviour on the spread of HIV in South Africa. A mathematical model is developed to simulate changes in numbers of sexual partners, changes in marital status, changes in commercial sex activity and changes in the frequency of unprotected sex over the life course. This is extended to allow for the transmission of HIV, and the model is fitted to South African HIV prevalence data and sexual behaviour data. Results suggest that concurrent partnerships and other non-spousal partnerships are major drivers of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa.

Author's affiliation
Leigh Johnson
University of Cape Town, South Africa
Rob Dorrington
University of Cape Town, South Africa
Debbie Bradshaw
South African Medical Research Council, South Africa
Victoria Pillay-Van Wyk
Human Science Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa
Thomas Rehle
Human Science Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa

Keywords
AIDS/HIV, sexual behavior, simulation model, South Africa

Word count (Main text)
11030

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