Volume 22 - Article 10 | Pages 211–236

Modeling fertility curves in Africa

By Ezra Gayawan, Samson B. Adebayo, Reuben A. Ipinyomi, Benjamin Oyejola

Print this page  Facebook  Twitter


Date received:17 Feb 2009
Date published:12 Feb 2010
Word count:5782
Keywords:Africa, age-specific fertility rate (ASFR), Akaike Information Criterion, complementary error function, cubic/quadratic spline, polynomial model


The modeling of fertility patterns is an essential method researchers use to understand world-wide population patterns. Various types of fertility models have been reported in the literature to capture the patterns specific to developed countries. While much effort has been put into reducing fertility rates in Africa, models which describe the fertility patterns have not been adequately described. This article presents a flexible parametric model that can adequately capture the varying patterns of the age-specific fertility curves of African countries. The model has parameters that are interpretable in terms of demographic indices. The performance of this model was compared with other commonly used models and Akaike’s Information Criterion was used for selecting the model with best fit. The presented model was able to reproduce the empirical fertility data of 11 out of 15 countries better than the other models considered.

Author's Affiliation

Ezra Gayawan - Redeemer’s University, Nigeria [Email]
Samson B. Adebayo - Society for Family Health (SFH), Nigeria [Email]
Reuben A. Ipinyomi - University of Ilorin, Nigeria [Email]
Benjamin Oyejola - University of Ilorin, Nigeria [Email]

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

» A Bayesian semiparametric multilevel survival modelling of age at first birth in Nigeria
Volume 28 - Article 45

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

» Evolution of the shape of the fertility curve: Why might some countries develop a bimodal curve?
Volume 37 - Article 11    | Keywords: age-specific fertility rate (ASFR)

» The fertility response to the Great Recession in Europe and the United States: Structural economic conditions and perceived economic uncertainty
Volume 36 - Article 51    | Keywords: age-specific fertility rate (ASFR)

» First union formation in urban Burkina Faso: Competing relationship transitions to marriage or cohabitation
Volume 34 - Article 15    | Keywords: Africa

» Counting Souls: Towards an historical demography of Africa
Volume 34 - Article 3    | Keywords: Africa

» Reconstructing trends in international migration with three questions in household surveys: Lessons from the MAFE project
Volume 32 - Article 35    | Keywords: Africa