Volume 22 - Article 20 | Pages 579-634

No consistent effects of prenatal or neonatal exposure to Spanish flu on late-life mortality in 24 developed countries

By Alan Cohen, John Tillinghast, Vladimir Canudas-Romo

Print this page  Facebook  Twitter

 

 
Date received:14 Mar 2009
Date published:13 Apr 2010
Word count:5906
Keywords:Barker hypothesis, fetal origins, Human Mortality Database, influenza, mortality, Spanish Influenza 1918-19
DOI:10.4054/DemRes.2010.22.20
 

Abstract

We test the effects of early life exposure to disease on later health by looking for differences in late-life mortality in cohorts born around the 1918-1919 flu pandemic using data from the Human Mortality Database for 24 countries. After controlling for age, period, and sex effects, residual mortality rates did not differ systematically for flu cohorts relative to surrounding cohorts. We calculate at most a 20-day reduction in life expectancy for flu cohorts; likely values are much smaller. Estimates of influenza incidence during the pandemic suggest that exposure was high enough for this to be a robust negative result.

Author's Affiliation

Alan Cohen - Université de Sherbrooke, Canada [Email]
John Tillinghast - Johns Hopkins University, United States of America [Email]
Vladimir Canudas-Romo - Syddansk Universitet, Denmark [Email]

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

» Decomposing changes in life expectancy: Compression versus shifting mortality
Volume 33 - Article 14

» The Gompertz force of mortality in terms of the modal age at death
Volume 32 - Article 36

» Cause-specific measures of life years lost
Volume 29 - Article 41

» The crossover between life expectancies at birth and at age one: The imbalance in the life table
Volume 24 - Article 4

» An integrated approach to cause-of-death analysis: cause-deleted life tables and decompositions of life expectancy
Volume 19 - Article 35

» The modal age at death and the shifting mortality hypothesis
Volume 19 - Article 30

» Changing mortality and average cohort life expectancy
Volume 13 - Article 5

» Age-specific contributions to changes in the period and cohort life expectancy
Volume 13 - Article 3

» Decomposing demographic change into direct vs. compositional components
Volume 7 - Article 1

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

» The 1918 influenza pandemic and subsequent birth deficit in Japan
Volume 33 - Article 11    | Keywords: influenza, mortality

» Decomposition analysis of Spanish life expectancy at birth: Evolution and changes in the components by sex and age
Volume 13 - Article 20    | Keywords: Human Mortality Database, mortality

» First signs of transition: The parallel decline of early baptism and early mortality in the province of Padua (northeast Italy), 1816‒1870
Volume 36 - Article 27    | Keywords: mortality

» Visualizing compositional data on the Lexis surface
Volume 36 - Article 21    | Keywords: mortality

» Contribution of smoking-attributable mortality to life-expectancy differences by marital status among Finnish men and women, 1971-2010
Volume 36 - Article 8    | Keywords: mortality