Volume 23 - Article 9 | Pages 223-256

Completing incomplete cohort fertility schedules

By Pao-Chih Roger Cheng, Eric S. Lin

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Date received:09 Oct 2009
Date published:30 Jul 2010
Word count:7500
Keywords:APC model, cohort fertility schedule, fertility forecast
DOI:10.4054/DemRes.2010.23.9
Additional files:23-9 SAS dataset (zip file, 23 kB)
 

Abstract

This paper develops a simple age-period-cohort framework in completing incomplete cohort fertility schedules, and makes full use of 1917--2005 U.S. data to obtain robust outcomes. Empirically, we indicate that the period effect is the key to transforming a fertility level into a fertility schedule. Accompanied by the smoothed version of tempo-variance-adjusted total fertility rates proposed in Kohler and Philipov (2001), we approximate the cohort fertility schedules fairly well and the estimates of all distributional parameters can be thereby obtained. Our approach is easy to implement and the data requirement is relatively light, indicating that the proposed method is readily applicable to countries whose data lengths are insufficiently long, and would be helpful for further empirical investigation of the relationship between cohort fertility behavior and other cohort-specific socioeconomic factors.

Author's Affiliation

Pao-Chih Roger Cheng - National Central University, Taiwan [Email]
Eric S. Lin - National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan [Email]