Frank T Denton
Byron G Spencer

http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol24/34/

doi:10.4054/DemRes.2011.24.34

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Abstract

The standard period life table is based entirely on the death probabilities of the given period. Popular (not expert) usage of life expectancies from a period table typically ignores the fact that the expectancies make no allowance for future declines in mortality rates. But the historical record provides overwhelming evidence to suggest that declines will continue, and the period expectancies can therefore be misleading, in a practical context. We propose a “dynamic” extension of the period table that draws out the implications, for survivorship and life expectancy, of observed rates of change of death probabilities.

Author's affiliation
Frank T Denton
McMaster University, Canada
Byron G Spencer
McMaster University, Canada

Keywords
dynamic extension, life expectancy, period life expectancy

Word count (Main text)
3076

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