Volume 25 - Article 2 | Pages 39-102

More on the Cohort-Component Model of Population Projection in the Context of HIV/AIDS: A Leslie Matrix Representation and New Estimates

By Jason Thomas, Samuel J. Clark

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Date received:25 Nov 2008
Date published:05 Jul 2011
Word count:11300
Keywords:Africa, AIDS/HIV, cohort component method, estimation, incidence, Leslie matrices, model, prevalence
DOI:10.4054/DemRes.2011.25.2
 

Abstract

This article presents an extension of the cohort component model of population projection (CCMPP) first formulated by Heuveline that is capable of modeling a population affected by HIV. We extend this work by developing the Leslie matrix representation of the CCMPP that greatly facilitates implementation of the model for parameter estimation and projecting. The Leslie matrix also contains information about the stable tendencies of the corresponding population, such as the stable age distribution and time to stability. We validate our reformulation of the model by comparing parameter estimates obtained through maximum likelihood and bootstrap methods to those presented by Heuveline.

Author's Affiliation

Jason Thomas - University of Wisconsin-Madison, United States of America [Email]
Samuel J. Clark - University of Washington, United States of America [Email]

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