Volume 25 - Article 23 | Pages 723-754

Constraint or choice? Disentangling fertility determinants by switching regressions

By Christoph Sax

Print this page  Facebook  Twitter

 

 
Date received:12 Jan 2011
Date published:15 Nov 2011
Word count:6000
Keywords:demographic transition, fertility determinants, income-fertility relationship, supply-demand framework, switching regression
DOI:10.4054/DemRes.2011.25.23
 

Abstract

In 1953, many poor countries had not yet approached the demographic transition. Accordingly, income generally had a positive impact on fertility in poor countries, while it has a negative impact today. Easterlin´s supply-demand framework offers an explanation for this nonlinearity by attributing the positive relationship to Malthusian (or "supply") factors and the negative relationship to "demand" factors.

This paper estimates Easterlin´s supply-demand framework by switching regressions in a panel data set of 152 countries from 1953 to 1998. The technique allows identifying several factors affecting the Malthusian constraint and the demand for children, such as income, the source of income, urbanization, religion and the medical environment.

It is found that a combination of higher GDP per capita, a decrease in the infant death rate and an increase in education explain a substantial part of the reversal of the relationship between income and net fertility over the sample period.

Author's Affiliation

Christoph Sax - Universität Basel, Switzerland [Email]

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

» The long-term determinants of marital fertility in the developed world (19th and 20th centuries): The role of welfare policies
Volume 36 - Article 42    | Keywords: demographic transition

» The decline of infant and child mortality among Spanish Gitanos or Calé (1871−2005): A microdemographic study in Andalusia
Volume 36 - Article 33    | Keywords: demographic transition

» The forest and the trees: Industrialization, demographic change, and the ongoing gender revolution in Sweden and the United States, 1870-2010
Volume 36 - Article 6    | Keywords: demographic transition

» Postponement and recuperation in cohort marriage: The experience of South Korea
Volume 35 - Article 35    | Keywords: demographic transition

» GDP and life expectancy in Italy and Spain over the long run: A time-series approach
Volume 35 - Article 28    | Keywords: demographic transition

Articles

»Volume 25

 

Citations

 

 

Similar Articles

 

 

Jump to Article

Volume Page
Volume Article ID