Volume 30 - Article 1 | Pages 1-48

An application of MCMC simulation in mortality projection for populations with limited data

By Jackie Li

Print this page  Send this article to a friend  Twitter

 

 
Date received:15 Mar 2012
Date published:08 Jan 2014
Word count:6883
Keywords:Bayesian, MCMC, modelling, mortality projection, WinBUGS
DOI:10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.1
 

Abstract

Objective: IIn this paper, we investigate the use of Bayesian modeling and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, via the software WinBUGS, to project future mortality for populations with limited data. In particular, we adapt some extensions of the Lee-Carter method under the Bayesian framework to allow for situations in which mortality data are scarce. Our approach would be useful for certain developing nations that have not been regularly collecting death counts and population statistics. Inferences of the model estimates and forecasts can readily be drawn from the simulated samples. Information on another population resembling the population under study can be exploited and incorporated into the prior distributions in order to facilitate the construction of probability intervals. The two sets of data can also be modeled in a joint manner. We demonstrate an application of this approach to some data from China and Taiwan.

Author's Affiliation

Jackie Li - Nanyang Technological University, Singapore [Email]

Similar articles in Demographic Research

» A Bayesian analysis of the spatial concentration of individual wealth in the US North during the nineteenth century
Volume 30 - Article 36    | Keywords: Bayesian

» Another 'futile quest'? A simulation study of Yang and Land's Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort model
Volume 30 - Article 11    | Keywords: MCMC

» Modelling the constraints on consanguineous marriage when fertility declines
Volume 30 - Article 9    | Keywords: modelling

» Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model
Volume 29 - Article 43    | Keywords: Bayesian

» Masculine sex ratios, population age structure and the potential spread of HIV in China
Volume 22 - Article 3    | Keywords: modelling

Articles

»Volume 30

 

Citations

 

 

Similar Articles

 

 

Jump to Article

Volume Page
Volume Article ID