Decomposing changes in life expectancy: Compression versus shifting mortality

Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher; Marcus Ebeling; Vladimir Canudas-Romo

Volume 33 - Article 14 | Pages 391–424

Decomposing changes in life expectancy: Compression versus shifting mortality

By Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher, Marcus Ebeling, Vladimir Canudas-Romo

Date received:

23 Mar 2015

Date published:

1 Sep 2015

Word count:

5371

Keywords:

compression of mortality, decomposition, life expectancy, modal age at death, mortality models, shifting mortality

DOI:

10.4054/DemRes.2015.33.14

Additional Files:

demographic-research.33-14 (zip file, 4 kB)
readme.33-14 (text file, 836 Byte)

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Abstract

Background: In most developed countries, mortality reductions in the first half of the 20th century were highly associated with changes in lifespan disparities. In the second half of the 20th century, changes in mortality are best described by a shift in the mortality schedule, with lifespan variability remaining nearly constant. These successive mortality dynamics are known as compression and shifting mortality, respectively.

Objective: To understand the effect of compression and shifting dynamics on mortality changes, we quantify the gains in life expectancy due to changes in lifespan variability and changes in the mortality schedule, respectively.

Methods: We introduce a decomposition method using newly developed parametric expressions of the force of mortality that include the modal age at death as one of their parameters. Our approach allows us to differentiate between the two underlying processes in mortality and their dynamics.

Results: An application of our methodology to the mortality of Swedish females shows that, since the mid-1960s, shifts in the mortality schedule were responsible for more than 70% of the increase in life expectancy.

Conclusions: The decomposition method allows differentiation between both underlying mortality processes and their respective impact on life expectancy, and also determines when and how one process has replaced the other.

Author's Affiliation

Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher - Syddansk Universitet, Denmark EMAIL
Marcus Ebeling - Max-Planck-Institut für Demografische Forschung, Germany EMAIL
Vladimir Canudas-Romo - Australian National University, Australia EMAIL