Volume 33 - Article 38 | Pages 1067–1104  

Earnings and first birth probability among Norwegian men and women 1995-2010

By Rannveig Hart

Abstract

Background: The relationship between earnings and fertility and how it varies with context are among the core investigations of demography. Cross-country comparisons show that when parenting and employment are in conflict, this relationship is less positive for women. We lack knowledge of how this relationship is shaped by context for men and how it varies with contextual changes over time rather than between countries.

Objective: I investigate how the relationship between earnings and first-birth probability changes over time for men and women, in a period when efforts in parenting and paid work become increasingly similar across sex.

Methods: Discrete-time hazard regressions are applied to highly accurate data from Norwegian population registers. Through estimation of separate models for each of the years 1995 through 2010, I assess whether the correlation between yearly earnings and the first birth probabilities changed over period time. The correlation is estimated net of observable confounders, such as educational enrolment and attainment and region of birth.

Results: The correlation between earnings and fertility has become substantially more positive over time for women, and also somewhat more positive among men.

Conclusions: Though the potential opportunity cost of fathering increases, there is no evidence of a weaker correlation between earnings and first birth probability for men. I suggest that decreasing opportunity costs of motherhood as well as strategic timing of fertility are both plausible explanations for the increasingly positive correlation among women.

Author's Affiliation

  • Rannveig Hart - Folkehelseinstituttet (Norwegian Institute of Public Health), Norway EMAIL

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

The big decline: Lowest-low fertility in Uruguay (2016–2021)
Volume 50 - Article 16    | Keywords: adolescent fertility, birth order, fertility, Latin America, ultra-low fertility, Uruguay

Cohort fertility of immigrants to Israel from the former Soviet Union
Volume 50 - Article 13    | Keywords: age at first birth, assimilation, cohort analysis, fertility, immigration, parity, religiosity

Fertility decline, changes in age structure, and the potential for demographic dividends: A global analysis
Volume 50 - Article 9    | Keywords: age structure, demographic dividend, demographic transition, fertility, migration, population momentum, working-age population

Analyzing hyperstable population models
Volume 49 - Article 37    | Keywords: birth trajectory, cohort analysis, cyclical populations, dynamic population model, fertility, hyperstable, period

Attitudes toward work and parenthood following family-building transitions in Sweden: Identifying differences by gender and education
Volume 49 - Article 30    | Keywords: educational inequality, family-building transitions, gender equality, parenthood attitudes, work attitudes

Cited References: 67

Download to Citation Manager

PubMed

Google Scholar

Volume
Page
Volume
Article ID