Volume 36 - Article 51 | Pages 1549–1600  

The fertility response to the Great Recession in Europe and the United States: Structural economic conditions and perceived economic uncertainty

By Chiara Ludovica Comolli

Abstract

Background: This study further develops Goldstein et al.'s (2013) analysis of the fertility response to the Great Recession in western economies.

Objective: The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the fertility reaction to different indicators of the crisis. Beyond the structural labor market conditions, I investigate the dependence of fertility rates on economic policy uncertainty, government financial risk, and consumer confidence.

Methods: Following Goldstein et al. (2013), I use log-log models to assess the elasticity of age-, parity-, and education-specific fertility rates to an array of indicators. Besides the inclusion of a wider set of explanatory variables, I include more recent data (2000−2013) and I enlarge the sample to 31 European countries plus the United States.

Results: Fertility response to unemployment in some age- and parity-specific groups has been, in more recent years, larger than estimated by Goldstein et al. (2013). Female unemployment has also been significantly reducing fertility rates. Among uncertainty measures, the drop in consumer confidence is strongly related to fertility decline and in Southern European countries the fertility response to sovereign debt risk is comparable to that of unemployment. Economic policy uncertainty is negatively related to TFR even when controlling for unemployment.

Conclusions: Theoretical and empirical investigation is needed to develop more tailored measures of economic and financial insecurity and their impact on birth rates.

Contribution: The study shows the nonnegligible influence of economic and financial uncertainty on birth rates during the Great Recession in Western economies, over and above that of structural labor market conditions.

Author's Affiliation

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Couples' paid work, state-level unemployment, and first births in the United States
Volume 45 - Article 38

The effect of the Great Recession on permanent childlessness in Italy
Volume 37 - Article 20

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

A Bayesian model for the reconstruction of education- and age-specific fertility rates: An application to African and Latin American countries
Volume 49 - Article 31    | Keywords: age, Bayesian analysis, education, fertility estimation, fertility rates

Couples' paid work, state-level unemployment, and first births in the United States
Volume 45 - Article 38    | Keywords: breadwinner, dual earners, Great Recession, parenthood, social norms, unemployment

The Own-Children Method of fertility estimation: The devil is in the detail
Volume 45 - Article 25    | Keywords: age-specific fertility rate (ASFR), census data, demographic methods, indirect estimation, reverse survival method

The power of the government: China's Family Planning Leading Group and the fertility decline of the 1970s
Volume 42 - Article 35    | Keywords: China, family planning, fertility rates, Northern Ireland

Fertility responses to individual and contextual unemployment: Differences by socioeconomic background
Volume 39 - Article 35    | Keywords: childbearing, socioeconomic background, unemployment

Cited References: 55

Download to Citation Manager

Volume
Page
Volume
Article ID