Volume 4 - Article 8 | Pages 203-288

A Guide to Global Population Projections

By Brian C. O'Neill, Deborah Balk, Melanie Brickman, Markos Ezra


Date received:	05 Dec 2000
Date published:	13 Jun 2001
Word count:	24372
Keywords:	forecasting, population projections, projection methodology, uncertainty
DOI:	10.4054/DemRes.2001.4.8

Abstract

Interdisciplinary studies that draw on long-term, global population projections often make limited use of projection results, due at least in part to the historically opaque nature of the projection process. We present a guide to such projections aimed at researchers and educators who would benefit from putting them to greater use.
Drawing on new practices and new thinking on uncertainty, methodology, and the likely future courses of fertility and life expectancy, we discuss who makes projections and how, and the key assumptions upon which they are based. We also compare methodology and recent results from prominent institutions and provide a guide to other sources of demographic information, pointers to projection results, and an entry point to key literature in the field.

Author's Affiliation

Brian C. O'Neill - Brown University, United States of America [Email]
Deborah Balk - Columbia University, United States of America [Email]
Melanie Brickman - Columbia University, United States of America [Email]
Markos Ezra - Brown University, United States of America [Email]