Volume 6 - Article 6 | Pages 91-144

Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility

By Hans-Peter Kohler, PhD, José Antonio Ortega

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Date received:08 Nov 2001
Date published:01 Mar 2002
Word count:12825
Keywords:cohort fertility, fertility, fertility postponement, fertility projection, low fertility, parity progression, parity progression measures, Sweden, tempo adjustment
DOI:10.4054/DemRes.2002.6.6
Weblink:For data and programs to replicate the analyses for Sweden, see http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/~hpkohler/
 For application to Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain, see Publication 6-7 in Demographic Research.
 

Abstract

In this paper we introduce a new set of tempo-adjusted period parity progression measures in order to account for two distinct implications caused by delays in childbearing: tempo distortions imply an underestimation of the quantum of fertility in observed period data, and the fertility aging effect reduces higher parity births because the respective exposure is shifted to older ages when the probability of having another child is quite low.
Our measures remove the former distortion and provide means to assess the latter aging effect. The measures therefore provide a unified toolkit of fertility indices that (a) facilitate the description and analysis of past period fertility trends in terms of synthetic cohort measures, and (b) allow the projection of the timing, level and distribution of cohort fertility conditional on a specific postponement scenario. Due to their explicit relation to cohort behavior, these measures extend and improve the existing adjustment of the total fertility rate. We apply these methods to Sweden from 1970 to 1999.

Author's Affiliation

Hans-Peter Kohler, PhD - University of Pennsylvania, United States of America [Email]
José Antonio Ortega - Universidad de Salamanca, Spain [Email]

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