Hans-Peter Kohler
José Antonio Ortega

http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol6/6/

doi:10.4054/DemRes.2002.6.6

	Click the icon to view and/or download the PDF file. Once you are in the PDF file, use your browser back button to return to this page.

Abstract
In this paper we introduce a new set of tempo-adjusted period parity progression measures in order to account for two distinct implications caused by delays in childbearing: tempo distortions imply an underestimation of the quantum of fertility in observed period data, and the fertility aging effect reduces higher parity births because the respective exposure is shifted to older ages when the probability of having another child is quite low. Our measures remove the former distortion and provide means to assess the latter aging effect. The measures therefore provide a unified toolkit of fertility indices that (a) facilitate the description and analysis of past period fertility trends in terms of synthetic cohort measures, and (b) allow the projection of the timing, level and distribution of cohort fertility conditional on a specific postponement scenario. Due to their explicit relation to cohort behavior, these measures extend and improve the existing adjustment of the total fertility rate. We apply these methods to Sweden from 1970 to 1999.

Author's affiliation
Hans-Peter Kohler
University of Pennsylvania, United States of America
José Antonio Ortega
Universidad de Salamanca, Spain

Keywords
cohort fertility, fertility, fertility postponement, fertility projection, low fertility, parity progression, parity progression measures, Sweden, tempo adjustment

Related links

	For data and programs to replicate the analyses for Sweden, see http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/~hpkohler/
	For application to Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain, see Publication 6-7 in Demographic Research.

Word count (Main text)
12825

Other articles by the same author/authors (in Demographic Research)

	[21-15] The Likoma Network Study: Context, data collection and initial results
	[20-31] Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi
	[20-21] The Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project 2004-06: Data collection, data quality, and analysis of attrition
	[20-6] Overestimating HIV infection: The construction and accuracy of subjective probabilities of HIV infection in rural Malawi
	[9-12] A summary of Special Collection 1: Social Interactions and HIV/AIDS in Rural Africa
	[6-14] The Fertility Pattern of Twins and the General Population Compared: Evidence from Danish Cohorts 1945-64
	[6-7] Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures: Assessing the Implications of Delayed Childbearing for Cohort Fertility in Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain
	[5-4] Attrition in Longitudinal Household Survey Data: Some Tests for Three Developing-Country Samples
	[3-8] Frailty Modelling for Adult and Old Age Mortality: The Application of a Modified DeMoivre Hazard Function to Sex Differentials in Mortality
	[3-7] Empirical Assessments of Social Networks, Fertility and Family Planning Programs: Nonlinearities and their Implications
	[2-1] Gender Preferences for Children in Europe: Empirical Results from 17 FFS Countries
	[S1-1] Introduction to "Research on Demographic Aspects of HIV/AIDS in Rural Africa"
	[S1-13] Talking about AIDS: The influence of communication networks on individual risk perceptions of HIV/AIDS infection and favored protective behaviors in South Nyanza District, Kenya

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

	[21-23] Lowest-Low Fertility: Signs of a recovery in Italy? (low fertility, cohort fertility)
	[19-33] Fertility of Turkish and Moroccan women in the Netherlands: Adjustment to native level within one generation (fertility, cohort fertility)
	[19-28] Sweden: Combining childbearing and gender equality (Sweden, fertility)
	[17-30] Childbearing dynamics of couples in a universalistic welfare state: The role of labor-market status, country of origin, and gender (Sweden, fertility)
	[17-6] Understanding parental gender preferences in advanced societies: Lessons from Sweden and Finland (Sweden, fertility)

[ Back to previous page ]