Hans-Peter Kohler
José Antonio Ortega

http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol6/7/

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Abstract
In this paper we apply tempo-adjusted period parity progression ratios (Kohler and Ortega 2002) to Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain. These countries represent three distinct demographic patterns in contemporary Europe and are of particular interest for demographers. The goal of our analyses is to (a) describe past fertility trends in these countries in terms of synthetic cohorts and (b) project the level and distribution of completed fertility in cohorts who have not finished childbearing. Our analyses suggest that the most recent period fertility patterns in these countries do not imply substantial increases in childlessness even in younger cohorts. Moreover, if these patterns prevail in the future, young cohorts would reach completed fertility levels between 1.5-1.75.

Author's affiliation
Hans-Peter Kohler
University of Pennsylvania, United States of America
José Antonio Ortega
Universidad de Salamanca, Spain

Keywords
cohort fertility, fertility, fertility postponement, fertility projection, low fertility, Netherlands, parity progression measures, Spain, Sweden, tempo adjustment

Related links

	For data and programs to replicate the analyses for Sweden, see http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/~hpkohler/
	For formal development of tempo-adjusted parity progression measures, see Publication 6-6 in Demographic Research.

Word count (Main text)
12937

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