Volume 7 - Article 6 | Pages 307-342

Childbirth in East and West German Stepfamilies: Estimated probabilities from hazard rate models


Date received:	19 Jan 2002
Date published:	08 Aug 2002
Word count:	5303
Keywords:	fertility, hazard rate model, proportionality assumption, stepfamily
DOI:	10.4054/DemRes.2002.7.6

Abstract

The present paper studies fertility rates in partnerships with and without children from previous partners in East and West Germany. Data from the German "Fertility and Family Survey" is used to estimate piecewise-linear hazard rate models for having another child.
It turns out that a proportional-hazard model would give incorrect results because childbirth follows different time patterns for couples who have already a shared child and couples who do not. Therefore, a model with specific clocks for various experiences of parenthood is specified. Based on these model estimations the probability for having another child within a certain time is calculated. In West Germany the estimated likelihood of having another child within six years varies little by child composition.
In contrast, East-German couples with no shared child have a higher likelihood than couples with a shared child to have a child within six years.