Volume 9 - Article 10 | Pages 223-262

Elaboration of the Coale-McNeil Nuptiality Model as The Generalized Log Gamma Distribution: A New Identity and Empirical Enhancements

By Ryuichi Kaneko

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Date received:26 May 2003
Date published:13 Nov 2003
Word count:8423
Keywords:Coale-McNeil nuptiality model, fertility projection, first marriage schedule, generalized gamma distribution, marriage, nuptiality


The Coale-McNeil nuptiality model is a particular case of the generalized log gamma distribution model. In this paper, we demonstrate that recognition of this connection allows an expansion of the possible applications of the Coale-McNeil model. As examples, we propose a procedure to develop country specific standard schedules, and illustrate the utility in regression analysis (directly and via the competing risk framework). In addition, we employ this identification to enhance the ability of the models with empirical adjustment to trace the trajectory of the lifetime schedule for cohorts which have not completed the process. We illustrate an application to Japanese female cohorts. We also propose an application to fertility projection by modeling the fertility schedule by birth order.

Author's Affiliation

Ryuichi Kaneko - National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan [Email]

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